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The Chief of Brazil’s UN Climate Summit has defended oil and gas production as compatible with international efforts to limit global warming ahead of the South American country hosting the world’s most important climate consultations.
President Luis Inacio Lula da Silva’s government hopes that Brazil will become the fourth largest oil producer in the world. Last month, the country held an auction for oil blocks that contain parts of the ocean near the mouth of the Amazon River.
At the 2023 United Nations COP28 Climate Summit, around 200 countries agreed to move away from fossil fuels by 2050. Progress in the national climate target will be assessed at the upcoming UN COP30 at the National COP30 in November, as it will need to reduce greenhouse gases in 2030 by 2030 to limit it to 1.5C from the 1990 World War era.
The presidential designation of the United Nations COP30 Climate Summit, held at André Correado Lago, at the Amazonian City of Belém, has lost concern that Brazil’s stance on oil expansion is in conflict with global efforts to reach net-zero emissions.
“We are thinking of “net zero” to continue using oil for years. The move away from the fossil fuels gives us considerable flexibility,” a senior diplomat told the Financial Times.
“I believe that every country is analysing how to reach net zero in a way that is economically viable and technically viable, and logically should go in the direction of a transition (from fossil fuels).”
By 2030, Brazilian state-backed fossil fuel company Petrobras will increase oil production by percentage among the world’s top producers, according to a new analysis of global witnesses from the Campaign Group, based on March data from independent consultant Tristad Energy.
The oil and gas major, managed by the Brazilian government, is on track to produce 1 billion barrels of oil in 2030 or more than a third of its 2024, research found.
Petrobras declined to comment. That public data shows that both oil and gas production corresponds to 2.7 mn barrels per day in 2024, rising to 3.2 mn BPD by 2029, but this 19% and 33% of the studies cannot be compared directly as they cover both oil and gas.
Global witness investigator Patrick Gary said the study focused solely on oil as the resulting carbon footprint has been more polluted for longer periods and lasted hundreds of years in the atmosphere.
Rystad analyst Flávio Menten said Petrobras did not employ a very different strategy from its multinational peers, and since 2031 the research group predicted a steady decline in Brazil’s production.
More than half of Brazil’s oil is exported, but the country’s electricity network is fueled primarily by hydroelectric power generation and wind.
The Brazilian government argues that some of the revenue from hydrocarbon export revenues could be spent investing in greener energy sources. The Mines and Energy Department said the transition was compatible with its economic and social needs.
He said the transition process is not “radical” and it is important to balance strengthening renewable energy sources with exploration and production of oil and gas.
Correa Do Lago said many countries, including the US and Norway, are also expanding their oil production. He pointed out that the COP28 agreement, which moves away from fossil fuels, will “enable countries and businesses to choose different paths.”
He argued that Brazil increased its oil production but to use its revenue to protect the Amazon from deforestation, it was “completely different” from the scenario in which it boosted fossil fuel production and reduced renewable energy.
He said that while some countries currently had few options, they had no choice to use fossil fuel reserves to help pay for economic development.
However, there have already been signs of a shift from fossil fuels by major economies, such as the rise of China’s electrification, he added.
This year’s summit will focus on efforts to implement agreements already made at the top of past UN climates, including phase-out of fossil fuels, he said.
But campaigners such as Gary have accused Brazil of being a “conflict of interest” but are trying to balance its role as host to the UN Climate Summit while expanding oil production.
The oil industry said it had shown “learning throughout the COP process” in efforts to hamper efforts to tackle climate change at its latest UN summit in the United Arab Emirates and Petrostate in Azerbaijan.
This week at the Global Tipping Point Conference and the Exeter Environmental Forum in the UK, hundreds of representatives from major European science organizations and academia were involved, with around 200 participants approving a statement calling for action from policymakers who will “conference at the COP30 Climate Summit in Brazil later this year.”
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