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The hype about Greenland and its mineral wealth has long existed. The vast Arctic island, which wants independence from its colonial master Denmark, has a simple case. China has large reserves of many of the metals and rare earths that the West currently relies on. US President-elect Donald Trump is a potential buyer.
The only problem is that despite being active for decades, there is precious little information to show for it. There is one open mine there, which produces anorthosite, which is primarily used in fiberglass, and is in the red.
Despite the heat and light generated by President Trump’s previous proposal to buy Greenland in 2019, when Nuuk officials announced they were open to American companies, only one American company held an exploration license on the island. Canada and the UK have 23 companies each. . Climate change may be rapidly warming Greenland, but access to many mining areas remains difficult. “Mining operations in Greenland have been extremely difficult over the past four years,” said Roderick McKillie, executive director of 80 Mile, a British-listed mining company with three projects on the island.
Most Greenlanders dream of independence rather than a US takeover. To do so, Greenland will need its economy to grow significantly to offset the DKR 4 billion ($550 million) one-time grant from Denmark. This requires the development of mining and tourism. Both industries have common problems. Greenland’s peak season only occurs about half of the year, and it’s too cold otherwise. Its infrastructure is limited (there are over 50 settlements on the island, but there are no roads connecting two of them).
“What we want to tell the rest of the world is that Greenland has potential… but we can’t deliver tomorrow, and we need help, and we can’t do it alone. We cannot do that,” says Jørgen Hameken-Holm, permanent secretary at the Ministry of Commerce, Trade, Mineral Resources, Justice and Gender Equality.
President Trump’s incoming national security adviser, Mike Walz, last week raised the risk that China could intervene in the issue before the United States does. However, there is little evidence that Chinese people were involved in the mining. One company had an iron ore mining license, but the license was revoked by the Greenlandic government in 2021 due to lack of activity. Another Chinese group is a minority shareholder in a stalled and controversial rare earths project, which was blocked by the current government in Nuuk because of the presence of uranium in the area.
In the late 2010s, a Chinese company tried to build two airports in Greenland, but Denmark provided the funding instead after pressure from the United States. The only major mining companies in Greenland are Anglo-American companies, which are involved in very early-stage exploration.
The big question now is whether President Trump’s renewed interest in Greenland will help unleash a much-needed wave of investment in the mining industry. Opinions differ here. McQuilliy describes the recent media attention as “publicity that money can’t buy.” Still, he admitted that after more than 20 years of mining in Greenland, precious little has yet been achieved.
The three 80-mile projects (including copper and nickel, hydrogen and helium, and oil) could potentially become a “100-year mine,” but would require billions of dollars in investment. “We need government support to get them off the ground. The reality is that things are expensive in Greenland. We need the U.S. financial system,” McKillie added.
But Greenland officials are divided. The island was pitched to investors as a politically stable Western alternative to projects in riskier jurisdictions. Trump’s interest could call this into question, with one of the people saying some companies have inquired about the possibility of protecting their licenses in the event of a U.S. takeover.
Hamekenholm says tourism currently generates more revenue than mining and is likely to continue to do so in the long term. Nuuk Airport has been upgraded in recent months to accommodate international flights, and a new route to New York is scheduled to open this summer. However, high costs, limited infrastructure and short seasons all pose challenges to tourism development.
As with many aspects of the Arctic, the business potential in Greenland seems huge, but the reality often does not live up to the hype and change will take a long time. Mr. Trump’s challenge will be not only to make controversial statements, but also to significantly accelerate these business opportunities.
richard.milne@ft.com
