President Donald Trump is nearing the end of the first 100 days of his second term, and hasn’t rolled out as many investors have expected.
The markets cheered after the president took office, who campaigned to surge the US economy. Instead, the Trump administration’s policies are positively covered Global growth outlooksent stocks that fell on the brink of the bear market and left investors all over the world Questioning the role Our investment as a safe haven.
During Trump’s first 100 days (which officially closes on Wednesday, April 30th), shares fell nearly 8%. Stocks began a sluggish period as the 2024 technology bull market ran out of steam and investors began to worry about Trump’s tariff threat. More broadly, investors have begun to get worse with risky investments and become more defensive. But the general idea was that Trump would move so aggressively and fight the stock market.
This photo changed dramatically on the afternoon of April 2nd. For example, there was the scope and scale of new “mutual” tariffs announced for dozens of US trading partners across the United States and around the world for which dozens of US trading partners have surprised investors. Stocks plummeted, dollars and US government bonds slipped, and investors sought gold security. The “worst” superlatives associated with the market have collapsed back to the collapse that comes with the start of the 2020 Covid-19 pandemic.
Let’s take a look at how Trump’s first 100 days have been unfolding in major markets.
Market near Trump
Most thanks Trump’s tax on Mexico and Canada in the weeks following his inauguration, US stocks already At the retreat When Trump announced his tariffs. On April 3, the market was pigeons, and within a few days, on February 19, it fell 19.4% (excluding dividends) from the recent record high set just a month and a half ago. At that point, the stock market had had its worst start to the year since March 2020.
This marked a 180-degree turn from the optimistic mood on Wall Street just after Trump’s election.
On April 9, in a statement that contradicted the front and back headlines from administration officials, Trump reversed the course and delayed many taxes for 90 days. Even if he left China with a 145% tariff, the stock market roared higher amid optimism that Trump would continue to retreat with his most aggressive tariffs. Morning Star US Market Index On Trump’s 100th day, he’s just above 11% from the worst level.
Volatility rules in the trade war
Investors who have been used to relatively smooth sailing in the market over the past two years have uncomfortably found themselves Unstable territory. In the past month alone, the stock market has brought about the biggest shaking that has seen for years. The US market index totaled more than 10% in two consecutive sessions in early April, rising more than 9% on April 9th.
The rally saw the biggest gains in the broader stock market since October 2008, and saw significant gains in stocks that were beaten in the downdraft of tariffs. For example, Apple AAPL jumped over 15% that day, making its biggest profit since 1998. Tesla Tsla is increasingly intertwined with CEO Elon Musk’s political efforts to cut federal workforce, surged nearly 23% in its biggest day jump since May 2013.
Since Trump’s reversal, stocks have calmed down some, but remained significantly volatile compared to the beginning of the year. Continuous changes to the tariff outlook and Federal Reserve Independence It continues to promote major swings in stocks and other markets.
Reflecting this volatility, the stock market rose more than 2% in 10 days of the 68 days, with the market open and accounting for 15% of the session. All of 2024, that massive movement only happened 3% of the time. Even more dramatically, four of these sessions saw US stocks swing over 3%. It only happened once in 2024.
US bond markets are worried about jumping on tariffs
Stocks are usually attracting most attention, but days after the April tariff announcement, the usual sleepy world of US government bonds began to raise brows and concerns. Government bond yields declined steadily in the early years, but I’ll be shot high In the aftermath of the tariff announcement.
Treasury yields usually fall amid a deterioration in economic outlook as investors seek the security of government debt. Furthermore, economists have significantly increased the chances of a recession thanks to the negative effects of policy uncertainty and the negative effects of tariffs themselves.
Bond fund managers and analysts noted that there are some strengths. One is the impact of tariffs on inflation. Preston Caldwell, senior US economist at Morningstar; I raised his predictions For the Personal Consumption Expense Price Index (Federal Reserve’s Priority Inflation Measurement), 3.0% from 0.6% in 2025, and 3.2% in 2026, 1.3% in 3.2% in 2026
Many in the bond market also point out that the temporary phenomenon of hedge funds and other short-term traders has to sell bonds to raise cash. However, most concerns are caused by global investors. Low confidence On the relative safety of the US financial system. This means they are more likely to demand higher premiums to compensate for risks associated with US government debt. This leads to higher bond yields.
Investors are seeking money security amid tariff turmoil
Just as stocks struggle, some investors have I flocked to gold. Precious metals are often treated as hedges against economic slump, geopolitical insecurity, or sticky inflation, and all three of these scenarios have been the best thing for investors in the past few months. Gold prices have skyrocketed from a record high of over $3,400 in April from 2,755 ounces in January to more than $3,400 per ounce as the stock market was whipped.
Crypto President’s Crypto Roller Coaster
The crypto booster was bullish and Trump, who declared himself the crypto president, was expected to brighten up industry regulations. However, risk-off sentiment dominated the market, and as Bitcoin, the price of Bitcoin fell for most of Trump’s first 100 days Traded like technology stocks More than an alternative to the US dollar.
The popular cryptocurrency has regained some position following Trump’s 90-day suspension on tariffs on April 2. Overall, Bitcoin prices have fallen 9% over the course of the first 100 days of Trump’s second period.
Stock spinning acquires steam
The first day of Trump’s second term also saw a rewind of the “America First” theme that has dominated the stock market for over a decade. Even before the massive tariff announcements, investors were soaking their toes in international waters. China and Europe markets outperformed the US over the first quarter.
Not all movements are related to tariffs. In Europe, Trump has flagged support for Ukraine, prompting the government to rethink defence spending. Most notably, in Germany this suddenly ended with the country’s decades-old spending “brakes,” limiting its ability to increase defensive spending. It sparked massive rally in German and other European defence stocks.
And while US stocks are struggling to get back the ground, international markets have been better in the aftermath of Trump’s tariff announcement.
Investors have not only revolved out of the US market. So are they It rotated inside. The outlook for growth and degradation inflation has dented performance in almost every sector this year.
This is the only category that recorded meaningful profits in Trump’s first 100 days. Consumer Staples shares tend to have less tariff exposure than their discretionary counterparts, and have proven to be a relatively safe haven, as other sectors struggle. Since Trump took office in January, the consumer staple has been gaining nearly 4%.
Diversification worked
Amidst the dramatic headlines and market turmoil, there was perhaps one of the most important market trends for investors. A diversified portfolio He was good at riding the storm.
Even as the bond market trembles in April, the bond market continued to quarantine investors for the worst losses in the stock market. Morningstar US Medium Target Assignment IndexIt includes a diversified mixture of 60% stocks and 40% bonds, and was designed as a benchmark for the classic 60/40 portfolio, losing 2.1% in Trump’s first 100 days, compared to an 8% loss on the entire US stock market index.
