NOVO NORDISK New B It is predicted that the 4th quarter revenue report will be announced on February 5. The Morning Star’s views on what to look for in the novonordisk revenue and what to look for in stock is as follows:
・ Wednesday, February 5, 2025, 07.30 sets.
What should be noted about the fourth quarter revenue of NOVO NORDISK
Finance: Lily assumes a significant gaining market share of GLP-1 via NOVO NORDISK in 2025, but NOVO maintains the position of leadership throughout the global market. The total sales of NOVO are very heavy in GLP -1 sales, so the overall growth guidance of NOVO in 2025 is probably more than 80 % of sales in 2025. It should give you a viewpoint.
The margin assumes that the operation margin is quite stable in the mid -forties. Does Lily need to strengthen promotion efforts as Lily begins to sell Tirzepachid (Munjaro/Zepbound) more aggressively?
Manufacturing: We are more interested in the speed that the newly acquired catal manufacturing site can have a meaningful impact on the supply of NOVO global GLP-1. Reverse interest paid interest, and deprivation of stock repurchase).
General comments on manufacturing ability will be interesting. This is because there is a new and easy-to-release GLP-1 drug (such as Orforglipron in Lilly) that will be released as early as 2026 and can provide services to the global market as early as possible.
Pipeline: My important focus of this year is the head -to -head data of Cagrisema and Zepbound (in December, the effect of Cagrisema’s disappointing phase 3 is mainly a trial design, at least Zepbound. Is there as much safety profile?
I’m interested in how novo thinks about obese pipelines. It looks like two executable AMYLIN combinations, Cagrisema and AmyCretin. Cagrisema has advanced, but its effectiveness was unfortunate. Amuretine had the main data of effectiveness, which was from a small stage study.
Regarding the oral obesity pipeline of NOVO, we evaluate the confidence in monlunabant, and after disappointing data in September, proceeding with more promising data of AmyCretin, and confirming that we are still interested in moving forward. It would be interesting to do. Gen Drug Candaties Inv-347?
NOVO has an inverted version and verbal version data, so do you move forward with verbal AmyCretin? The manufacturing ability may determine this.
NOVO NORDISK stock price
Source: Morningstar Direct.
Fair estimation of novo Nordisk
With the evaluation of three stars, we believe that NOVO NORDISK is traded within a considerable value.
Pandemic has slightly delayed the release of the new oral GLP-1 therapy libersus, and due to the constraints of supply, the release of obese drugs WEGOVY in early 2022, but NOVO is diabetes and diabetes for $ 120 billion. We expect $ 600 billion out of one market. By 2028, obesity and Lily are standing as the main competitors of the company. WEGOVY’s powerful incorporation and pipeline advances have predicted the sales of 27 billion DKK obese in 2031, as the confidence in the NOVO’s ability to expand the drug -treated obesity market. The growth of the GLP-1 promotes the growth of the 16 % top line and bottom line up to 2028 for five years.
Use 7.5 % of stock costs to evaluate systematic risks surrounding NOVO NORDISK shares as average. Place holders, which are in the future litigation risk, are included in about 2 % of non -GAAP net income (higher than other areas in the brand drag industry).
See the details of the novo Nordisk estimate of the fair value.
NOVO NORDISK STOCK vs. Morningstar Fair Value estimate
NOVO NORDISK’s economic moat evaluation
Powerful intangible assets in relevant heart metabolism, such as diabetes and obesity, give companies a long -term protection of profitability. With a focused research and development strategy, companies can repeatedly expand patent protection through innovation. With efficient manufacturing technology and scale, the Novo insulin business provided powerful global profitability and quality shared with Sanofi, the other two global insulin players. Sun Eri Lily lly。
However, given that the foundation of NOVO has traveled rapidly from insulin (20 % of sales in 2023) to GLP-1 therapy (70 % of 2023), the advantage of the cost of NOVO is the source of the company as a whole. I don’t think it’s enough strength to stand. sale).
See the details of the Economic Moat in NOVO NORDISK.
Financial power
Novo has a powerful balance sheet, ending in 2023 with about 300 billion DKK with cash, marketed securities and 27 billion debt.
NOVO is historically far from large -scale merger and acquisition, and can continue to avoid such transactions due to company expertise in protein engineering. Continuous price pressure in the diabetic market has begun to look outside, with drug candidates that may complement the obesity WEGOVY, to support the adjacent areas pipeline.
See the details of NOVO NORDISK’s financial skills.
NOVO NORDISK risk and uncertainty
NOVO NORDISK has a wide range of global insulin businesses, but the increase in price pressure and increased dependence on the high-growth GLP-1 class adds volatility to potential cash flow, and the uncertainty of Morning Star. We maintain high evaluation. NOVO NORDISK’s evaluation of uncertainty is not substantially affected by the risk of environment, society, and governance, but it has the largest ESG risk that companies need to manage, so basic services ( Access to drug price settings can be seen. NOVO NORDISK has seen a major exposure to US policy changes, looking at sales from the US pharmaceutical market.
See the risks and uncertainty of NOVO NORDISK.
The Novours say
NOVO’s new obesity therapy WEGOVY has greatly expanded the obesity treatment market in consideration of its powerful effectiveness, and has been ready to be an important drug in the market until the patent expires in 2032. Masu. Novo is suitable for defending its terrible diabetes market share. Sema Glutide is also studied in areas such as liver disease (NASH) and Alzheimer’s disease, and novo can achieve powerful share in these new markets.
Novobea says
TRESIBA’s powerful profile in the long -term effect insulin market was not enough to defend the US price setting pressure due to the competition between Sanofi and Lily. Biosimiler Insulin has been emphasizing category prices since 2017. The important part of the growth of the company’s diabetes, the Oral GLP-1 Libersus has a slow intake, and the newly approved Munjaro provides a powerful competition that has been slowly launched due to supply constraints. But Zepbound, Lily’s obesity, provided Zepbound. A potentially good profile.
This article was edited by Johanna Enrund.
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