Important Morning Star Metrics from Novo Nordisk
Novo Nordisk has announced that it has ended its collaboration with Telehealth Provider Hims & Hers Health. Additionally, the company disclosed data at the American Diabetes Association’s annual meeting for pipeline therapies targeting amylin.
Why it matters: Novo Nordisk is trying to maximize the number of patients moving from the combined version of Semaglutide to the brand Wegovy following the May 22nd regulations deadline, but also focuses on long-term innovations beyond Semaglutide (US patents).
Novo claims HIMS remains dependent on mass sales of semaglutide combined through a “personalization” loophole in US policy. This shows that Cagrisema is potentially approved and is approved as well as supporting loss of muscle. Cagrilintide has promising tolerance, but uncertainty arises in the problem of injectable Amycretin resistance (as is the case from phase 1 studies).
Bottom line: We lower our fair value estimates from DKK 595 to DKK 552 (considering extended composite semaglutide competition) and Amycretin sales forecasts (considering more amylin competition).
Novo is hoping to fire oral Semaglutide in obesity in early 2026, with a 64-week 14% placebo adjusted weight loss setting bars for Lilly’s oral drug orfoglipron. That said, the cheaper production and lack of dosage restrictions for Orforglipron is likely to give a long-term advantage. We are concerned that Novo’s Amylin target products are less selective than avoiding some of the gastrointestinal tolerability issues common to GLP-1 treatments, and may help distinguish between other amylin targeted therapies, such as other amylin targeted therapies.
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