Editor’s Note: This analysis was originally published as a stock note by Morningstar Equity Research.
On June 22nd, our Select Tesla Tsla customers began testing their company’s Robotaxi services. Tesla shares rose slightly on June 23rd in pre-market trading.
Why it matters: Non-Tesla employees are to test their riding services. This is another step for robotaxi to enter commercial services. This test also included a ride app. This supports our view that the company will successfully enter the Robotaxi ride market.
In this test, we highlighted the improvements Tesla needs before launching a full Robotaxi service. For example, employees were sitting in the passenger seat as a safety monitor. Additionally, the service is currently not tested from midnight to 6am or in the rain. The test area is limited to a portion of Geofykens in Austin, Texas, and is about half the size of Waymo’s operating area. Given that geofencing is not part of its long-term plan, we consider this to be an indication that Tesla is still in its previous testing phase.
Conclusion: We maintain a narrow Moat Tesla estimate of a fair value of $250. We believe the stock is overvalued and currently exceeds fair value estimates and trades above 30% in the two-star territory.
Appearance: Tesla plans to report second quarter delivery in early July. Based on May and May data showing a decline in data for April and May, Tesla believes it is likely that the second straight quarter will see a quarter with a low delivery.
Tesla expects to continue testing Robotaxis from now on until revenues are called in mid- to late July. We would like to hear updates from the management on key steps in Tesla’s full Robotaxi road to commercialisation.
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