Unilever ULVR Sales growth for the fourth quarter was 4.0%, and expectations worsened, resulting in a slightly below 4.1% consensus compiled by the company (2.7% vs. 3% consensus). Stocks fell 6% on the news, and were hit by management’s cautious attitude in the first half of 2025.
Analyst: Diana Radu, CFA
Why it matters: Despite being solid compared to peers, volume growth did not accelerate compared to previous quarters. The market is concerned that Unilever has made good progress in its transformational plans, but will not be able to maintain its impressive performance streak from the past four quarters.
Marketing investments increased to 15.5% of sales compared to 14.3% in 2023. This has been the brand’s highest level of support in over a decade.
Unilever stock price and fair value estimates
Nevertheless, the underlying operating margin for 2024 increased by 170 basis points to 18.4%.
Conclusion: For widemote Unilever, check the fair value estimates of 57 euros, GBX 4,750 and USD 59. At the current level, the stock is well valued following post-announcement revisions.
I believe the responses by investors are exaggerated. The market weakness in the first half of 2025 could be offset by the year given Unilever’s continued efforts to improve innovation and marketing effectiveness, and the slightly higher price contribution. there is.
To that end, management led to 3%-5% organic sales growth and a modest improvement in sales margins in 2025, consistent with medium-term guidance. We forecast organic sales growth of 4.2% in 2025, which still represents a positive outcome given the challenging market environment.
Appearance: Unilever has announced details of the list structure for the upcoming Icecream business. The main list takes place in Amsterdam with additional lists in London and New York. Demerger is scheduled to be completed by the end of 2025.
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