UK unemployment, employment vacancies, wage data
With anecdotal evidence of labor shortages everywhere, the eyes are the latest UK jobs, unemployment, employment vacancies and wage growth figures. The UK Industrial Federation warned that these shortages could last for two years, as reported earlier this week in a UK investor magazine.
“On the first glance, the story of labor shortages seems strange,” said Danni Hewson, AJ Bell Financial Analyst. The UK reported 953,000 jobs as of June, but 1.6 million people were unemployed and 11.9 million remained in the Furlough scheme. Source: ONS
“However, the problem appears to be a discrepancy between skills and qualifications in many industries. From chefs from engineering to HGV, therefore CBI and others, the government is that overseas workers can obtain visas. Add more industries to the shortage occupation list. They can work in the UK,” said Hewson.
Furthermore, the unemployment rate of 4.7% is below the long-term average, with the 75.1% employment rate of less than 76.6% in 2020, with the total number of 31m employments being less than 694,000 in history. It peaked in February 2020.
AshTead Q1 transaction update
The shares of equipment employer Ashtead have been running a good bull as of late. This is despite the pandemic-induced global slump.
Ashtead earned 90% of its sales from the American Sunbelt business, with most of the rest appearing in the UK’s A-plant business.
“Perhaps one reason stocks have worked so well is that we hope that the US economy is supported by monetary stimulus from the US Federal Reserve and more fiscal stimulus from Congress. “I’m in danger of being shut down by two Democrat senators,” says Hewson.
Hughson also paid attention to the consistency of Ashtead’s stock price and the index of the manufacturing manager at the Supply Management Institute.
Source: ISM, Refinitiv data
Ashtead’s first quarter should be beneficial, with analysts and shareholders considering the figures in two headlines.
“The first is sales. As stipulated, revenues increased 23% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of the previous year. This is the first growth of five quarters. Analysts said in April 2022. “We are seeking 10% sales growth over the year from April 2022, slightly outweighing management guidance for a 6% to 9% increase.”
Retail sales in the US
US retail sales were disappointed in July, with forecasts lost, and sales fell 1.5% per month.
“Investors may want to think, ‘What?’ This is a nasty data set right now due to the pandemic. Additionally, retail sales are higher in the first quarter of 2020 than before the pandemic began, and it’s easy to argue that the July drop was due to the outbreak of Deltavariant state,” says Hewson.
But there may be more than you see it. For some individual states, individual states have already withdrawn their $300-enhanced weekly unemployment benefits. This is expected to end nationwide at the end of September. “Is the pending easing ease because the stimulus is relaxed?” Asked Hewson.
The question is what happens when the stimulus check is blocked. “What happens when rental evictions are prohibited and the mortgage payment tolerance scheme ends?” adds Hewson.
“It could drive a new surge in employment because people have to go to work. It could lead to a rush of retail spending, others say.”
