If I didn’t go and watch last night’s outrage, I missed the following Trump classics: That there is a very nice “clear” water in the United States. And simply say “good” and respond to 500 children who are separated from their parents. On the other podiums, Biden wasn’t exactly burning. The most repeated sound bits of the former VP, a weaker performance than the first argument, were painful laughs and “giving me a break.” So, where will last night’s antics leave a public mood when it closes on Election Day?
Well, according to many polls posted so far, Biden won the debate last night:
Who won the argument tonight?@yougovamerica:
Biden 54% (+19)
35% playing cards
.@cnn:
Biden 53% (+14)
39% playing cards@dataprogress:
Biden 52% (+11)
41% playing cards
– Politics polls (@politics_polls) October 23, 2020
Let’s be honest: I was able to take myself to see the previous exchange and see the second half of last night’s discussion.
From what we saw, Trump was still as overstated as ever, but he was much more controlled in terms of delivery. Unfortunately for Biden, this meant that incumbent Potus was in charge when he was speaking and he was more respectful when he wasn’t.
The same could not be said about Biden. Apart from a strong closing statement, Biden appeared to have all the opportunities and facts that would hit Trump decisively, but lacked the belief or calmness to do so. What has stagnated in some respects due to Trump’s repetitive and militant style is the only thing that keeps the Democratic candidates floating last night was the fact that he was generally advocating for comfortable policies, and that he made a patently true statement (of course, the president never carries these kinds of constraints).
Overall, it’s another nagging clock, and the difference from the previous game is that Trump appears to look a bit flat, and on the point, Biden was lost in the words. After the initial discussion, a considerable rift opened up in the vote between candidates, so the incumbent president had to make the voter’s sentiment seem semiparat, with a bit of a swing in his favor. And certainly, it seems that it did exactly that.
National GE:
Biden 53% (+10)
43% playing cards
.
General Congress Voting:
Democrats 51% (+8)
43% Republicans@GSG/@gbaostrategies,rv, 10/15-19 https://t.co/i9zu5wo4jz
– Politics polls (@politics_polls) October 23, 2020
National GE:
Biden 52% (+6)
46% playing cards@surveymonkey/@tableau/@Axios,lv,10/19-21 https://t.co/xyp5kztmif
– Politics polls (@politics_polls) October 23, 2020
Right now, Biden still appears to have a significant lead, but most polls are around 9-10%, which has reduced the votes the previous week, giving most 10-12% advantages. The latter polls give him just 6% lead, which may be a bit dramatic (and from Trump-inclined pollers), but also means the smallest advantages he has given Biden since the 30-day election countdown began.
Importantly, the 6% figure covers voters’ intentions, not votes from election colleges. This is because Trump’s widespread voter benefits him from an ECS perspective. In fact, Clinton had a 5% voting lead in the 2016 election, winning 3 million (4-5%) more votes than his rival, but ultimately lost with 77 college votes. With this in mind, Biden’s supporters should not fall to the final hurdle. Because a vote lead below 10% is likely too close for comfort.
As election day approaches, narrow margins also reflect the swing state, but Biden still holds most of the lead.
Pennsylvania
Biden 51% (+7)
44% playing cards@muhlenberg/@mcall,lv,10/13-20 https://t.co/ipqtbkbwhr
– Politics polls (@politics_polls) October 23, 2020
MICHIGAN
Biden 48% (+9)
39% playing cards
.#mo:
Peters (D-INC) 45% (+6)
James (R) 39%
EPIC-MRA, LV, 10/15-19HTTPS: //t.co/9ujjpfrwrl
– Politics polls (@politics_polls) October 23, 2020
Florida
50% playing cards (+2)
Biden 48%@surveymonkey/@tableau/@Axios,lv, 9/24-10/21 https://t.co/xyp5kztmif
– Politics polls (@politics_polls) October 23, 2020
You win in most swing states, but the predictions of sentiment in Florida seem to change depending on the poll you are looking at. However, Florida and Pennsylvania are particularly important, in the meantime, 49 ECs are more than enough to determine the outcome of the 2020 election.
It is also worth noting that Biden is considered a more “decent” candidate. 64% say yes to Biden. Also, following last night’s discussion, Biden’s approval rate rose from 55% to 56%, while Trump fell from 42% to 41%. If none of these factors comfort Biden’s supporters about the narrowing margin, hopefully they will take some heart from the economists’ bold predictions:
#latest @theeconomist forecast:
Chance to win an electoral college:
Biden 92%
7% playing cards
Chance to win the most votes:
Biden 99%
1% playing cards
Presumed election university vote:
Biden 345
Trump 193 https://t.co/6ei5t5ogc2
– Politics polls (@politics_polls) October 23, 2020
But overall, elections don’t win in polls. As we saw in 2016, polls could make it terrible and grossly wrong. The only way to see candidates in the White House is to go out and vote. The last 55% voter turnout would be a victory for the entire US politics.
