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A guide to what the 2024 US election means for Washington and the world.
The idea of ”two Americas,” one rich and one poor, one blue and one red, has existed for decades. But now, thanks to Donald Trump, America has about 50 states.
As quickly as a new president signs an executive order, state governments are moving to challenge it in court. As a result, blue states are looking for ways to protect themselves from immigration raids, weakening environmental regulations, the monopolistic power of Big Tech, and deep cuts in federal subsidies for everything from healthcare to health care. It will be a more chaotic environment for businesses and a richer environment for lawyers. Emergency relief.
The litany of lawsuits during President Trump’s first term began again last week when Massachusetts, New Jersey and California led a group of 18 states to challenge the president’s executive order abolishing birthright citizenship. Four other states have filed similar lawsuits. Massachusetts Attorney General Andrea Joy Campbell said: . . is a guarantee of equality, born out of a collective struggle against oppression. . . It is a right established in our Constitution and recognized by the Supreme Court for over a century. ”
Hopefully today’s conservative courts will not approve a modern version of the 1857 Dred Scott decision that barred citizenship for enslaved people, but the fight will be costly and long. Ironically, a series of decisions handed down by the Supreme Court in late 2023 actually made it much easier for individuals, businesses, and victim states to take action against the federal government.
Blue state governments, for example, are responsible for many of the monopoly wars waged by the Biden administration. Minnesota’s progressive attorney general, Keith Ellison, stars as the face of the fight against predatory ticket prices, algorithmic manipulation of real estate markets, grocery monopolies and rent-collecting drug companies, former federal trader Lina Khan He took over as the committee chairman.
The states would also serve as grounds for repealing climate legislation, including Biden’s anti-inflation law, which President Trump claims he calls the Green New Deal. The president may be trying to rebrand some of the provisions that favored red states as his own, but he’s also dumping subsidies for things like electric cars.
California is preparing for the coming fight against climate change. The state sued the Trump administration 123 times between 2017 and 2021, winning multiple victories over environmental deregulation, though mostly on administrative grounds. This time, the Trump administration has experience and bureaucratic talent. California has already withdrawn multiple requests granted under the Biden administration to implement its own higher pollution regulations. And President Trump has blamed conservation efforts for the city’s inability to extinguish the fires and has threatened to withhold federal disaster aid from the city unless the state changes its water management.
California Governor Gavin Newsom has requested $25 million from the state budget to cover anticipated legal costs in his fight against Trump. The state is also leveraging the power of its own huge economy (5th largest in the world) to partner with large companies that meet its own clean energy standards, as it did with the world’s largest automakers during the first Trump presidency. They will try to terminate the deal.
This is an important point. Blue states are home to most of the nation’s largest and wealthiest consumers. Even if the president doesn’t like them, they can create a strong signal of demand for the rest of the country. For example, if the New York City Housing Authority decides to adopt a particular type of teller, it could potentially set an industry standard for years. If California, New York, Illinois, and Massachusetts choose certain technology platforms for their public education systems, choose certain food safety regulations, or choose certain approaches to labor or AI, the balance of corporate actions may be tilted.
Of course, the economic pull of doing business in such places will be matched by the regulatory burden they impose, especially compared to red states willing to embrace President Trump’s deregulatory, laissez-faire policies. Probably. A friend of mine who owns a small business recently spent a year and tens of thousands of dollars in legal fees trying to safely fire a lazy remote worker he hired in California who could be sued. Her replacement is from business-friendly Tennessee.
Historically, U.S. states tend to stick together the most when fighting something, and this time is no different. Last November, Illinois Governor JB Pritzker and Colorado Governor Jared Polis were named “Governors Defending Democracy” to share resources to counter President Trump’s policies. A new group has been established. For example, Pritzker said he would not cooperate if President Trump tried to use National Guard troops from red states to deport blue states. Will California send resources to help?
I hope questions like this stay on the topic of dystopian movies. The reality is that many blue states have large budget deficits and will have to find ways to deal with reduced funding from Washington. Conservatives are already calling for a new fiscal federalism, blaming the national debt problem on the bloated national budget. There are no prizes for guessing where the first cut will be made.
rana.foroohar@ft.com
