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good morning. The US has stopped military aid to Ukraine as Donald Trump is trying to increase pressure on Voldimi Zelensky to agree to a peace deal with Russia.
That memo is today’s Defense Heavy Newsletter. Our financial correspondents have made clear that new joint funding ideas are being pitched to EU leaders, and my Dublin colleagues report on Ireland’s plans to facilitate the deployment of the troops as peacekeepers.
together
Paola Tamma will propose a new common funding mechanism for EU leaders in response to the demand for a large and rapid boost to European defence spending.
Context: With President Donald Trump calling for European Presidents to spend more on defense and reconciliation with Russia, European Commission’s Ursula von der Leyen presents funding options for today’s surge in defense spending ahead of Thursday’s extraordinary leadership summit.
These are set to include new ad hoc financing measures worth around 93 billion euros in planned but undeveloped post-pandemic recovery loans.
Other options mentioned include reuse of the Regional Development Fund for military investment. The committee also said it would allow the country to spend more on defense without sueing sanctions under EU fiscal rules.
Some of the ideas that have come to mind are pushing European investment banks to invest more in defense, and setting up a new line of credit from Europe’s stability mechanism, a relief fund established after the global financial crisis.
“I will notify Member States through a letter on the Re-Armed European Programme. Yesterday von der Leyen said: EU Capitals will ultimately decide which of the funding options will be accepted.
Leaders intended to discuss joint defense needs and resources at the summit later this month, but the timeline has been accelerated after his threat to withdraw Trump’s initiative to launch bilateral peace talks with Russia and support for Ukraine.
“That logic is now completely covered by Trump’s overture to Putin, and the need for Europe to demonstrate it can put that money in the mouth,” said Mujitaba Rahman, European director of Eurasia Group, a political risk analysis firm.
This week, public leaders said in a statement from NATO that the continuing debate over what to use would require funding to be discussed as an urgent issue. “An argument about money is much easier than any argument,” they said.
EU Council President Antonio Costa, who convened and chaired the summit, wrote a letter to Hungary’s Victor Orban yesterday, rejecting any attempts to politely consider him from his threats and find consensus for the meeting.
“In regards to the defense of Europe, I welcome the fact that no objections have been raised in your letter,” Costa wrote. “Please note that there are differences in the path to achieving peace (in Ukraine). Nevertheless, we agree to a central purpose.”
Today’s Chart: Kill
By changing defense priorities and attitudes towards large market returns, ethical investors have quietly dropped resistance to arms companies.
Reporting obligations
Military neutral Ireland is preparing to facilitate the deployment of military forces overseas, as it considers it to be part of Ukraine’s future European peacekeeping forces, Jude Weber writes.
Context: Irish Cabinet is expected to change bills today that change the way soldiers are deployed in peacekeeping missions. Currently, under the so-called Triple Rock, approval is required from the UN Security Council, Cabinet and Parliament.
Irish foreigner, Defense Minister Simon Harris said there was “no situation” in which Russia, a permanent security council member, could refuse Ireland’s deployment.
His bill is about to change the triple lock to a double lock – it requires a green light from the Cabinet and Congress only – and raises it to 50 to 50 from the number of troops that can be deployed without such approval.
Harris argued that the move has not been triggered by the call of Ukrainian peacekeeping forces, but that Ireland is one of the highest proportions of Ukrainian refugees and supports Kiev with non-lethal aid, which is eager to emphasize.
Harris stresses that his bill does not mean that it will end Ireland’s long-standing military neutrality policy. But it’s controversial. A recent poll showed that 46% of respondents refused to change triple locks, while 41% agreed. Sinn Féin, Ireland’s leading opposition party, said he opposes the law.
What to see today
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is taking part in a strategic dialogue on steel in Brussels.
An informal meeting of the EU Minister of Telecommunications in Warsaw.
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