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According to the UN nuclear watchdog, Iran has increased its highly enriched uranium stockpile by 50%.
As of May 17, Iran owned 408.6kg of uranium, enriched to 60% purity, according to a report from the Confidential International Atomic Energy Agency, obtained by the Financial Times. This has shown a sharp rise of 133.8kg since February.
Iran remains the only nuclear-free state known to be highly enriched uranium. This is the development of the IAEA, known as a “problem of serious concerns” due to the serious risk of nuclear proliferation. Uranium enriched to 60% is generally defined as 90% enriched just below weapon grade.
The escalation occurred amid indirect nuclear negotiations between Iran and the United States, and was facilitated by Oman, and began in April. Despite five rounds of negotiations, both sides remain deeply divided against Iran’s uranium enrichment program.
The Trump administration argues that Iran must stop all uranium enrichment before sanctions are lifted, but Tehran explains the rollback as a “red line” that enrichment program is a sovereign right, and that it does not intersect.
Analysts warn that an increase in uranium stockpile will raise both diplomatic interests, increasing a sense of urgency for the need for trading.
Kelsey Davenport of the Arms Management Association said: “If the (IAEA) board adopts the resolution, Iran is likely to retaliate, putting Tehran and Washington at risk of progress at the negotiation table.”
She added that a comprehensive nuclear deal provides the best path to addressing IAEA concerns. “Both the US and Iran need to exercise restraints in response to IAEA reports and continue to focus on reaching the transaction.”
In its latest diplomatic efforts, Omani’s Badr bin Hamad al-Busadi visited Tehran on Saturday to deliver “elements of the US proposal,” saying Tehran will respond “appropriately.”
Iran claims its nuclear program is peaceful and complies with a religious ban on nuclear weapons.
However, experts say they currently have the ability to produce fissile material that requires sufficient fissile material for nuclear weapons within two weeks.
The IAEA report also reiterated long-standing concerns about Iran’s lack of transparency. Inspectors say Tehran was unable to provide a reliable explanation of the undeclared nuclear material found at three sites that are part of the long-running probes by the Watchdog.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry dismissed the Vienna-based agency’s report as politically motivated, accusing the US, UK, France and Germany of promoting “repeated and unfair” narratives.
However, the open issues highlight the current fragile state of diplomacy. The coming months will be important as Iran faces potential military threats, particularly from Israel. It could also be arrested by new UN sanctions.
European powers have warned that if Iran does not comply with nuclear restrictions, it could trigger a “snapback” mechanism to revive sanctions by October.
President Donald Trump said he prefers diplomatic solutions to the crisis, but warned him about military action if he couldn’t get a deal.
Ali Vaez, senior analyst at International Crisis Group, warned that without any meaningful progress immediately, negotiations risk collapse, leading to more hostile standoffs in Vienna and New York.
“The agency’s report confirms Iran’s obfuscation of past undeclared work and escalations in current nuclear activities,” Vaez said.
“Unless the US and Iran can move forward in negotiations, diplomatic efforts that have previously focused on Muscat and Rome are likely to move to even more controversial and high-stakes standoffs.”
