Today’s Agenda: NATO Summit. Monte Dei Paschi shares sales scrutiny. EU Single Market, Interview with Russia’s Jean-Impossible Drone and Delphine Nuaneau
good morning. We will begin in the Middle East, where we are awake to the announcement of Donald Trump’s ceasefire between Iran and Israel. This is the latest.
What happened: Last night the US president said Israel and Iran agreed to a “complete and complete ceasefire.” He also said that the truce will be carried out in stages by Iran and Israel for more than 24 hours.
Iran’s foreign minister later posted to X that X had no agreement, adding that if Israel ceased the “invasion”, Tehran “will not continue our response.”
Israel has not yet given an answer about the ceasefire.
Meanwhile, Israeli paramedics said three people were killed this morning in a missile strike in Iran south.
Market Impact: Stock markets have risen in Asia after the announcement of the ceasefire. The dollar undermined 0.3% against its basket of major trading partners. Oil prices have been extended as traders responded with relief. International benchmark Brent crude fell 4.1% per barrel to $67.61.
If hostility escalations are realized and persisted, follow our live blog for the latest updates. And here is further coverage of the conflict:
Trump’s Iranian policy: The head-spurring course change in Tehran has once again revealed how the US president will alternate between the threat of fuss, efforts to cut trade, extreme measures and sudden victory laps.
Join FT journalists and guests and participate in webinars exclusively for FT subscribers to unfold the strategic, diplomatic and economic interests of the Israeli-Iran war. Please register here.
Here is the other thing we keep tabs today:
Central Bank: Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey gives evidence to the Senate Committee on Economic Affairs in Westminster, while Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell submits a six-month monetary policy report before the House Financial Services Committee.
Economic Data: Germany released its June IFO Business Environment Index, and the US reports on employment and unemployment rates for May.
NATO Summit: Member state leaders meet in The Hague for a summit aimed at imposing defence spending on Trump. The rally is at risk of falling into condemnation.
Five more top stories
1. Exclusive: Germany will promote defense spending by more than two-thirds by 2029, surpassing France and the UK as Prime Minister Friedrich Merz drives the rearmament of Europe’s largest economy in the face of offensive Russia and unstable America. Anne-Sylvaine Chassany has more about this plan.
Macron and Meltz: As norms are eroded and old certainty challenges, Europe must act accordingly and arm a precarious world, writes the French president and German prime minister.
NATO Expenditure: Keir Starmer ir pledges to the Alliance that the UK will raise defence funds to 5% of GDP within 10 years.
Transatlantic Affiliation: US defense companies are pleading for European rivals as they target regional military spending.
2. Exclusive: The European Commission was considering selling Italian government stakes at Monte dei Pasi di Siena last year, claiming large investors such as Unicredit, Norway’s Petroleum Fund and BlackRock were locked out of the bidding process. Read the full report.
3. Developing countries’ currencies, stocks and bonds are opposed to Trump’s trade war exceeding global markets in 2025 and conflicts in the Middle East as investors try to diversify away from dollar assets amid concerns over volatile US policymaking.
4. Exclusive: The CEO of Deutsche Bank’s asset management division urged European policymakers to adopt a more practical stance on investment from China and the Gulf as Berlin prepares to overhaul the infrastructure that has spent hundreds of millions of people. Read our interview with DWS Chief Stephen Hoop.
5. Amazon founder Jeff Bezos and TV anchor Lauren Sanchez’s wedding in Venice this week was a lightning bolt of protests in Venice this week.
Big reading
©ft Montage/Dreamschtime
More than 30 years have passed since its inception, hundreds of barriers have continued within the EU single market. In an era of trade wars, Brussels believes that improving the flow of goods, services and capital can help them become more competitive. But previous attempts to unite the bloc sparked the inspiration of the state. Translating newly discovered political momentum into the proposed necessary reforms is the most difficult challenge.
We’re reading too. . .
Military Briefing: Russian summer attacks are beginning to gain position in Ukraine, with Moscow’s troops being helped by unclogged drones.
“Chain of Thinking”: The world’s leading artificial intelligence group is struggling to force them to show how AI models work.
“Validation Problems”: As technology improves, a return to face-to-face encounters is more likely, writes Stephen Bush.
The chart of the day
The main reason for worrying about global trade imbalances is not the impact on manufacturing, but the second order issue for a country like the US, rather financial stability. This is also why fiscal adjustments need to be a cooperative venture when participants are such a big economy, Martin Wolf writes.
Take a break from the news
Delphine Arnaud on the left created Jonathan Anderson Creative Director of Dior’s clothing collection ©Thomas Chéné
Last month, Dior CEO Delphine Arneau appointed Jonathan Anderson as creative director who oversees both male and female collections. Her decision to introduce a Northern Ireland-born designer is her biggest bet since she was at the helm of the division in 2023. Read more about the plan to open a new chapter with LVMH’s second largest brand.
