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good morning. Donald Trump’s bombing of Iran is a huge gamble to destroy the Islamic Republic’s nuclear weapons program without causing conflicts that could tear the Middle East and overturn the stability of the world. Here is our story of how he made his decision:
Yesterday’s early morning strike began a significant week for European foreign policy. NATO leaders will meet tomorrow for a summit where their spending promises can determine the future of US support for continental security. Many of them will make a short trip to Brussels for Thursday’s EU summit and discuss the details of their spending.
Here, our Baltic Correspondent is said to have a gap in NATO’s military capabilities to be declassified to persuade voters to support higher defensive spending. And I will continue to unravel what the Iranian crisis means for Europe.
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NATO should allow the country to say its lacking military capabilities to help it win public support for higher levels of defense spending, the Lithuanian foreign minister told Richard Milne.
Context: This week’s NATO Alliance Conference in The Hague will increase its defence spending target from 2% of GDP to 3.5%, and an additional 1.5% of infrastructure. Spain secured an opt-out from its pledge yesterday, in signs that it was causing concern in many European capitals.
Kistutis Budries told the Finance Times that the country is keeping the military capabilities it needs “dampens the position and debate of those seeking higher spending.”
“It would be much easier to declassify them and show our society what we have and what we need, and to persuade them to support this decision. I’m not talking about this region, the Baltics of Scandinavians. I’m talking about other countries,” he said.
If Russia focuses on the Western Alliance after a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the three Baltic Seas are considered the most vulnerable parts of NATO. By next year, everyone has increased their defensive spending to more than 5% of GDP.
By 2030, Lithuania has expanded its land troops to approximately 17,500 soldiers, while Germany will have a permanent brigade based in the Baltic countries by 2027. Other NATO forces, including the US, France and Canada, are based in the Baltic region, but the Defense Alliance is visible after aviation police forces in three countries.
Budrys said NATO should talk about capabilities such as air defense, artillery stockpile and long-range missiles.
“In Europe, only discussion of numbers alone is toxic,” he added.
NATO officials declined to comment on Budrys’ comments. However, officials added: “The Capacity Target sets the resources, forces and capabilities that allies need to achieve our defense plan. The exact details are categorized, but for example, a 400% increase in air and missile defense, thousands of armored vehicles and tanks, and millions of artillery artillery.
Today’s chart: take-off
Prices for jet fuel and diesel in Europe are rising sharply thanks to the Israeli-Iran conflict threatening important supplies.
A nervous bystander
The seven B-2 bombers flying 18 hours to drop a 30,000-pound “bunkerbuster” bomb on suspicion of Iran’s nuclear weapons facility were not something that the European Foreign Minister had in mind when urging the US to “restrain measures that would lead to further escalation.”
Context: Israel began a military strike in Iran 10 days ago with the aim of destroying nuclear facilities. Donald Trump ignored a call for a return to negotiations with Tehran yesterday morning with a major atomic site bombing.
The EU foreign ministers gather in Brussels today to discuss and discuss fallout from the US attacks and have three important issues.
First, can Iran retaliate against European US allies? European citizens, military assets and businesses in and around Iran are all considered potential targets for Tehran if they seek to punish the wider West.
Second, what will happen to the economic impact? Officials say Tehran will likely use asymmetric attacks, such as directly obstructing trade routes through the Gulf Coast, or through Yemeni Hooty Proxy, which has threatened western ships for many years. This will increase crude oil prices and overall shipping costs.
Third, what role will the EU play in the future? US intervention bares the inability of European-led diplomatic efforts to find a compromise with Tehran over nuclear programmes, but many hope that long-standing communications channels will be reinvigorated when Israel, Iran and the United States in Paris, London, Berlin and Brussels determine it is time to reduce arms.
What to see today
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney visits Brussels for the EU Canada Summit.
The EU foreign ministers meet.
Please read these
$15 Billion Payday: Revolut’s Chief Nik Storonsky is lined up with huge payments under a long-term incentive deal aimed at a $150 billion valuation.
Health Fear: Donald Trump’s drug plan to lower US prices puts higher drug costs in Europe at risk, industry experts warn.
The US retreat from Enrico Letta: Transatlictism handed Europe the opportunity to shape its own future, the former Italian prime minister wrote.
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