Good morning, I’m back to Firstft. Here is what we have for you today:
Dan Ivasin’s thoughts on tariffs and markets
Details of the expected US-UK trade agreement
The Pope’s history is going well
And the behavior of polygamy
Bond giant Pimco has warned that investors are underestimating Donald Trump’s resolve to recover the sudden tariffs that overturned the market last month, as investment directors said the risk of a recession is the highest ever. The Financial Times sat with Dan Ivascyn on the sidelines of the Milken Institute Global Conference held at Beverly Hills. The highlights of that interview are as follows:
About Trump’s tariffs: Ivascyn said investors are wrong to think Trump’s taxes will be withdrawn completely or less mandatory than previously announced. “People believe that the lamp is off (against tariffs) and that it will return to something that feels like “before release date,” he said. “I’m not sure.”
Regarding the outlook for a recession: “We may be in a recession,” Ivasin said. “The probability is the highest in a few years,” he said that trade collection is at a higher price level () higher price level at the time we are seeing a slowdown (in the economy).” “It could lead to more “Stag Fries” scenarios.
In the corporate debt market, there is “many of bubbles and self-satisfaction.” “We’re continuing to be defensive there,” he said. Pimco was still in favor of “high-quality sectors like mortgages,” given the “very strong household balance sheet.”
In the US government bond market, “The US will not lose its reserve currency situation any time soon,” Ivasin said. “But… it’s hard to see meaningful progress in the deficit,” he said Pimco has increased its US government’s debt market exposure over the past two months. Read the full interview here.
Here is the other thing we keep tabs today:
Central Bank: The Bank of Canada will issue the latest financial stability report, with the governor and senior lieutenant governor holding a press conference afterwards. The Bank of England is expected to cut fees and show further cuts.
Economic Data: Chilean statistical agency INE has published its inflation counts for April, while Mexico’s Statistics Bureau has also published its inflation data for last month. The Argentine government is planning to release industrial production data for March.
Companies: ItaúUnibanco, lender of Pinterest, Shopify, Lyft, Molson Coors, Conocophillips, Tapestry and Brazilian, are some of the companies reporting results. WeightWatchers has its first bankruptcy court hearing.
Congress: The Senate Commerce Committee, Science and Transportation Committee will hold hearings on removing regulatory barriers to American artificial intelligence amid concerns about the speed at which Chinese competitors such as Deepseek have grown.
Russia: As the ceasefire with Ukraine begins, Vladimir Putin meets Chinese counterpart Xi Jinpaku, ahead of Moscow’s Victory Day celebration.
VE Day: To mark the day when World War II ended in Europe, FT spoke to four British veterans who recall that extraordinary moment 80 years ago.
Five more top stories
1. Donald Trump plans to announce a new trade deal with the UK later today, and those familiar with the talks said what could Britain be the first in a series of countries to ease commercial tensions with Washington. The agreement will help mitigate the impact of the president’s “liberation date” tariffs. Details of this developing story.
2. The Federal Reserve has put on interest rates for the third meeting as it warned that economic uncertainty has “increased even further.” The Federal Open Market Committee added that “there is an increase in unemployment and the risk of high inflation is increasing.” Read more about the statement and comments from Chairman Jay Powell.
3. Trump has offered to mediate the conflict between India and Pakistan as the worst clash between the two nuclear forces rises in death hazards. Pakistani troops today fired down 25 Indian drones near major cities in Karachi and Lahore, and India said that a retaliatory strike by Pakistan killed 13 civilians in Kashmir. This is the latest in conflict.
Go deeper: In response to last month’s fatal attack on Kashmir tourists, the Indian attack sparked a ground swell of support in Pakistan in retaliation.
Military Briefing: Over the past quarter century, India and Pakistan have grown into nuclear power. Here’s how their troops compare:
4. US investors have accused the Swatch Group of “running for one shareholder” in veiled criticism of the Hayek family, who controls the struggling Swiss watch group behind Omega and the Longins. Stephen Wood’s comments on the FT come as he bolsters the campaign where he is elected to the board. Mercedes Ruehl has more from Zurich.
5. Walt Disney is planning a theme park in Abu Dhabi, a partnership with the state-backed Miral Group. This is because it targets “million people” with disposable income that lived far away to easily reach other parks. The news not only helped the company’s fiscal year outlook, but also helped Disney’s stock rise 10.8% in New York yesterday.
Detailed news
©Vatican Media/AFP Getty Images
The practice was to cut off cardiacs from the outside world until they chose a new pope born in the 13th century. A 1492 was the first conclave held at the Sistine Chapel, under the adoring Renaissance fresco. But under sacred ornament, the process of choosing heirs to the Pope’s throne writes the history of spies, voters who have a history depicting history.
We’re reading too. . .
Joseph Nye: An international relations expert who served in the Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton administrations, who coined the term “soft power” has died. He was 88 years old.
Trade: Although it looks rather bad in the medium term, recent evidence suggests that both international trade and the US economy can fully cope with major shocks without suffering long-term damage.
Cat videos and arms? The competition over electricity has sparked an unlikely conflict across Europe.
The chart of the day
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Over the past few years, the appeal of anime has shifted from a niche fandom to one of Japan’s most powerful soft power vectors. The distinctive global market for Japanese manga is expected to almost double from $31.2 billion in 2023 to $60.1 billion by 2030. Global private equity firms and Hollywood Studios are hungry to buy valuable IPs with Japanese entertainment companies. For Japan, the pressure to monetize truly successful homemade products is concrete. But who will enjoy the reward of this growth potential?
Take a break from the news
All workplace anxiety today is about polygamous workers. Those who take on multiple full-time jobs without revealing it to their employer. That may be dishonest, but Emma Jacobs claims to be fooling the boss.
©ft Montage;Dreamschtime
