Elon Musk’s Starlink plans to strengthen its control of the satellite internet market with this year’s revenue surge, but the world’s wealthiest human connection to US President Donald Trump has shifted from global rollout assets to obstacles.
The billionaire SpaceX Group is making progress towards regulatory approval in other vast markets such as India, in order to rapidly bring services to countries with 1 billion potential new users, including negotiating with Turkey, Morocco and Bangladesh.
Musk and Trump’s alliance has also removed obstacles and paves the way for a lucrative federal contract, except for the monopoly concerns faced by Biden-era officials.
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The service has been set up in the White House for several weeks, but Trump’s Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick is lobbying officials to consider Starlink, a $42 billion US rural broadband equity, access and deployment (beads) program.
However, as national regulators need to approve Starlink’s entry into the market and politicians need to focus on whether Musk is a trustworthy partner, SpaceX’s founder’s foray into politics is beginning to hinder global expansion plans.
In recent weeks, Canadian provinces have torn Starlink contracts in protest of US tariffs. Meanwhile, Musk is trading shaming with European politicians who support Ukrainian Starlink funding as part of his defensive efforts against Russia, calling for alternatives.
“It appears that there will be a potential structural shift in the satellite communications landscape that has been fired by geopolitics,” said Edison Yu, an analyst at Deutsche Bank. “Starlink is still clearly number one, but it’s not the only one.”
Approximately half of Musk’s $314 billion net worth is tied to SpaceX. This was valued at $350 million in a recent private cheeder offer, but Tesla’s 20% stake has dropped to $100 million.
Morgan Stanley estimates Starlink will generate $16.3 billion in revenue this year, up 74% from an estimated $9.3 billion in 2024, with subscribers almost doubled from 4.65mn to 7.8 million, according to a January report. By comparison, SpaceX’s rocket launch business is projected to win $5.8 billion in revenue in 2025, up 20% from last year’s $4.9 billion.
“It all started with market-leading launch capabilities, but we believe Starlink will be a major driver of SpaceX’s growth and profitability,” said Adam Jonas, analyst at Morgan Stanley.
Starlink has over 7,000 low-orbit satellites serving 118 countries and territories, with Niger providing the latest updates to be connected last week.
Industry insiders said the group was seeking a license to work in Turkey and had been discussing with Morocco about expanding compensation to the contested Western Sahara territories.
They said they hope SpaceX will get approval in Bangladesh next month. After Musk personally introduced himself to the service with the country’s interim leader, Muhammad Yunus, he said he hopes to operate in Bangladesh.
The deals will increase progress to enter India after Musk spoke with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Washington, DC, announced an alliance with rival tycoon Mukesh Ambani and Sunil Mittar earlier this month.
This service is particularly popular in developments or remote areas that are not connected to the textile optic network. It has contracted with state-backed airlines Qatar Airways and Air France, shipping groups such as MSC and Maersk, and major airlines such as cruise operators Cunard and Carnival.
However, about a quarter of the company’s revenue comes from government contracts. According to a US application, SpaceX has already secured 39 different StarLink contracts across the U.S. government, worth around $3.5 billion, including multiple military contracts with the Department of Defense.
It is about to expand under Trump, which was blocked by the Federal Communications Commission in 2022 with a $900 million contract. Former FCC Chairman Jessica Rosenwersel said last year that Starlink’s “economy has not benefited from monopoly.”
The Trump administration has moved to overhaul the FCC approach and ease restrictions on another rural broadband program that applies to Starlink.
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Evan Feinman, former director of the Bead program, said Starlink was singled out by Rutnik by Rutnik. “He mentioned Musk by name and asked if we were talking to Elon,” he told the Financial Times in a recent interview.
But as Musk’s ambitions spread from its home market, Starlink has become a target due to his proximity to Trump and unfiltered social media comments.
Ontario Prime Minister Doug Ford raised a $100 million contract with Starlink in response to US tariffs this month, commenting that Canada “will not do business with people like hellish about destroying our economy.”
Mask Branding South Africa’s Black Economic Empowerment Act “Openly Racist” complicates the approval of Starlink in his country, but spats in Brazil about misinformation on Mask’s social media platform X have almost banned Starlink.
More recently, Musk saved the Italian government’s $1.5 billion contract in sought an emergency meeting with Italian President Sergio Matarera. The Presidential Palace rejects this request and says Starlink must deal with the government of Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, not the head of state, in its role is primarily ritual.
Ukraine was another flash point. According to Ukrainian Digital Minister Mykhailo Fedorov, the country has grown relying on Starlink’s ubiquitous terminals, with over 40,000 people operating across military, hospitals, businesses and aid organizations. SpaceX initially covered the costs of the service, but is now being featured by Poland and the US Department of Defense.
The engineers install Starlink satellite dishes at their home in Niamey, Niger. Last week’s country has become the latest service connected to the service via Getty Images © Hama Boureima/AFP
The Pentagon has signed a $537 million agreement with SpaceX to serve Ukraine by 2027, offering a surge in low-earth track program. Meanwhile, Poland contributes around $50 million a year to deploy terminals within the country, according to Poland’s Ministry of Digitalization.
After Musk said on Social Network X, Starlink is the “backbone of the Ukrainian military,” and “if I turn it off, the whole frontline will collapse,” Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorsky warned that if SpaceX proves it’s “untrusted provider”, it will “be forced to look for other suppliers.”
“Quiet, little guy. You pay a small portion of the cost, and there’s no substitute for Starlink,” Musk replied with an X.
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The billionaire later revealed that SpaceX would not “turn off terminals” in Ukraine. “We’re never going to do that or use it as a negotiation tip,” he said.
Masao Dahlgren, a fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said that while there is scope for European providers to infiltrate the market, it is unlikely that SpaceX will escape as the dominant provider unless it can develop more sophisticated products. He described Starlink as the “hub in the wheel” of the efforts of the Ukrainian war.
However, while the threat from some leaders that ripple government contracts with SpaceX has not expanded to ban services within the borders, the wide reach of services means that in some countries without official networks, individuals and businesses use equipment purchased overseas and imported personally.
“SpaceX is the dominant force in the market,” said Chris Quilty, an analyst at Quilty Space. “If the country bans access to Starlink, people will be in politicians with pitchforks.”
Data and visualizations by Alan Smith, Cleeve Jones and Ian Bott of London.
Additional reports by David Pilling of London, Ilya Gridneff of Toronto and Amy Kazmin of Rome.
