Automotive companies support Donald Trump’s global tariff war periods and the uncertainty, which can be even more shocking for a global automobile supply chain than COVID PANDEMIC. 。
Only two days after the US President applied 25 % of tariffs to all imports from Canada and Mexico, and only two days after issuing a Presidential order to apply 10 % of products imported from China, Trump imports Mexico. I made it for a month. A “very friendly” conversation with President Mexico Claudia Symbaum. Shortly thereafter, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau signed a 11 -hour contract with the United States with a 30 -day pause on tariffs.
Car manufacturers are cautious about making important and costly strategic changes without clarifying the long -term direction of US trade and energy policy, but General Motors, Stula, Tesla. Executives indicate that the United States will increase the production. Customs duties.
“It’s a bit dangerous now,” said Michael Lohscheller, the highest executive of Polestar, a supported electric car manufacturer in China, saying in a recent interview.
What is the worst scenario?
Many car executives rely on Trump’s first presidential experience in reducing international tariffs’ risks, stating that the US President had not overcome the additional tax threats to trading partners. 。
Supply chain experts say that the worst scenarios, where both the United States and retaliation duties are implemented, is likely to lead to a bankruptcy chain among weaker automobile parts suppliers.
Global automobile supply chains are very complicated and interconnected, so the components made in Mexico may return to Mexico for the final rally and end in an American factory before being sold in the US market. there is. Customs duties status.
Ian Henry, a car -producing expert who runs a self -analysis consultant, states:
Henry warns that if the tariff war was able to withstand and the automaker could not provide enough financial support to maintain a supplier, the confusion in the supply chain could worsen than the pandemic.
Mikael Bratt, the Swedish seat belt and airbag maker AutoLiv, said that if it was implemented to Mexico, it would start discussions immediately to give customers a higher cost of tariffs.
“There is no reason at all. I will absorb such expenses,” said Brat last week’s revenue briefing. “Ultimately, the cost of vehicles sold in the United States will increase.”
Which car manufacturer is most exposed?
Traditional Big 3 automakers, which have spread footprints throughout the continent since the signature of the North American free trade agreement in 1994, is the most vulnerable to hitting profits. According to analysts, GM is the most exposed, Stellantis, the owner of Chrysler, is not so good. Ford is the most exposed to import the smallest vehicle share from outside the United States.
GM is popular with the popular margin chevrolet silver in the Silau factory in Mexico and the Canadian Ochaawa, and is increasing its exposure. BNP Pariva Analyst James Picarielo said that the automaker could probably be able to transfer production to the United States in about 300,000 trucks currently imported, but such switches are suppliers. He said that it would take 12 to 18 months after adjusting the shipment and hired workers.
He said that it would add about $ 1 billion to labor costs because workers earned more in the United States than Mexico. GM’s operating profit required 7 %, but it seemed preferable compared to the possibility of reducing 50 %, which could cause 25 % of tariffs.
“Currently, the $ 1 billion headwind seems like a managed scenario,” said Picarero.
Investors and analysts have assumed that tariffs on products from Canada and Mexico will eventually be negotiated.
Did the German car manufacturer escape if customs duties are not imposed on the EU?
Even before the tariff on the EU, European automakers are exposed. Volkswagen is the worst position, and 45 % of US sales are sold from cars made in Mexico and Canada, but the US market accounts for a small share of the total revenue of the group. 。
Due to all US sales vehicles from luxury Audi and Porsche brands manufactured outside the country, Moody’s reduced Mexican charges by 15 % by more than 15 % of the Volk Swargen Group’s interest and world revenue of taxes. It is presumed.
“We have a factory in Mexico, and our plan is to be stronger in the United States,” said Gernotdöllner, Audi’s highest executive officer. But he added: “I believe that customs duties are wrong and believe in free trade.”
65 % of American cars are built locally, but they are not exposed to the German automaker, as they are also a net depot from the United States.
According to Jochen Goler, a member of the BMW board member of the BMW, who is in charge of customers, brands, and sales, “I’m really optimistic, although the possibility is low, but I’m really optimistic. That’s it. ” “I think it will be one of the growth market next year.”
Does Tesla appear as Trump’s tariff winner?
Investors want to protect Tesla from Radioactive Fallet from President’s policy, with close relationships with Trump with Trump, but the world’s largest electric vehicle manufacturers are still exposed.
TESLA assembles all vehicles sold in the United States in a local, but according to Barclays, it has raised 20-25 % of the Cybertrack components from model 3, model Y, and Mexico.
“For many years, we have been trying to localize supply chains in all markets, but we are still very dependent on the world for all businesses,” he said. VAIBHAV Taneja stated in last week’s revenue briefing. Strike to profitability from Trump tariffs.
The company can also be a target of retaliation tariffs by Canada. Former Minister of Finance, a former Minister of Finance, who is running to replace Tordeau as the Prime Minister, states that Otawa should add a huge tax on Tesla vehicles and punish Musk to the US tariff. Ta.
Customs wars are also working on decreasing European sales due to the slowdown in demand for electric vehicles, increasing competition, and consumers against mask political activities.
According to the French Industrial Association La Plateforme Automobile, Tesla’s January sales in France were 63 % lower than the previous year.
Which car manufacturer is most exposed?
Small Japanese automakers such as Mitsubishi Motors and Subaru may benefit from lack of production in Mexico and Canada. According to Barclays, Honda is also relatively appropriate because two -thirds of US sales are assembled locally.
On Wednesday, the highest executive of Mitsubishi Motters, on Monday, the reporters, tariffs hardly affected the company, and the tariffs are not expanded to other areas in Asia, due to an increase in exports to the United States. He said he could even receive a few “tailwinds”.
However, he later said, “It looks like there is more headwinds,” and gain profits if Japan can mess up that Japan is a heavy tariff target. He revealed that he could do it.
Renault rarely hits in the United States and Canada, so it is rarely hit. French car manufacturers’ stocks have decreased only 0.6 % on Monday. This was far below the waterfall covered by other European car manufacturers with US exposure.
Bernstein’s analyst Stephen Latiman states: The company’s exposure to tariffs is through the clerk in Nissan, which is currently pursuing the merger with Honda.
But the company is not exposed to rivals, but REITMAN added: “There aren’t many winners in this. It reduces the number of wealth that reduces GDP and reduces the sales of cars.”