In 2014, then-Toyota President Akio Toyoda said he could “see the future” and said the launch of the company’s flagship hydrogen car, the Mirai, would be a “turning point” for the auto industry.
The world’s largest automaker, which sold just 27,500 hydrogen cars over the next decade, was no longer so sure. “I can’t say for sure that the future of hydrogen is bright,” Toyota Motor Corporation Chief Technology Officer Hiroki Nakajima told reporters at Japan’s Fuji Speedway racetrack in November.
But even as most other major automakers get serious about EVs, Toyota believes hydrogen will ultimately still play a key role in the decarbonization of transportation.
“If we give up on this technology, we run the risk of giving up on the future as well,” says Nakajima.
As part of its transition to hydrogen-powered trucks, buses and vans, Toyota unveiled a hydrogen-electric hybrid van prototype in November. It is the first of its kind and will be tested in Australia.
Toyota is also working with Isuzu Motors to mass produce small hydrogen fuel cell trucks later this year, and has signed contracts to supply hydrogen buses in Tokyo, Strasbourg and Madrid.
“At every level, hydrogen has been a failure for passenger cars,” said James Hong, head of Asia energy transition and products at Macquarie Capital. “What remains unanswered is the demand for commercial vehicles and stationary energy storage.”
Hydrogen fuel cells generate electricity through a chemical reaction between hydrogen and oxygen, and only water vapor is emitted from the exhaust pipe. Not only do hydrogen-fueled cars have zero carbon emissions, they also refuel faster than EVs and, for larger vehicles, have a longer range.
Despite government support around the world, the hydrogen ecosystem remains small and few large-scale fuel production projects have been built.
As a result, hydrogen fuel cells are not mass produced and costs remain high. The hydrogen version of Toyota’s Crown luxury car costs 1 million yen ($6,500) more than the model equipped with the new hybrid system.
Meanwhile, fierce competition in China and advances in battery technology are driving EV prices down. “When you have a technology that already works, is ultra-cheap and performs well, namely lithium-ion batteries, you question the need to invest in an entirely new supply chain,” said CRU Group analyst Sam Adham. There is a need to do so.” consulting.
Toyota is trying to promote hydrogen use through its truck manufacturing subsidiary Hino Motors. Hino and rival Mitsubishi Fuso Truck and Bus have announced they will merge in 2023 to “pursue economies of scale” and focus on hydrogen. But the deal has been delayed, with both companies citing regulatory approval requirements and a certification scandal.
The company is partnering with other rivals to share development costs, reflecting widespread alliances across the industry to counter Chinese competition. The company has signed or is in talks with South Korea’s Hyundai and Germany’s BMW, which have invested heavily in hydrogen vehicles.
Toyota’s then-President Akio Toyoda gives a speech at the launch of the hydrogen-powered Mirai in 2015 © Torashibun Kitura/AFP via Getty Images
“A few years ago, people were more proactive about hydrogen for trucks and buses,” says Anne-Sophie Corbeau, a hydrogen expert at the Center for World Energy Policy.
“It will be a question of cost and availability of trucks and buses. The jury is still out, but electric solutions are becoming more favorable each year.”
Lee Ho-geun, a professor of future automobiles at Daedeok University, said that even though Hyundai Motor received a government subsidy of 36 million won per unit for its flagship hydrogen Nexo SUV, He said the company had a loss of $1.
However, he said it still makes sense to pursue hydrogen vehicle development in the long term because there are proprietary technologies that companies have already developed.
“EV sales profits will always be limited by the need to buy or license battery technology from other companies, but with hydrogen vehicles there is no need to pay royalties,” Lee said.
Lack of fuel infrastructure both domestically and internationally continues to be an issue. Last February, oil giant Shell announced it would close all hydrogen refueling stations in California, the state where fuel cells are most popular in the United States. In response, Mirai owners filed a class action lawsuit against the company in July, accusing them of misleading them about the availability of hydrogen fuel.
Toyota Mirai hydrogen fuel cell engine © Buddhika Weerasinghe/Bloomberg
The failure of hydrogen cars to become mainstream is not only a setback for Toyota and Hyundai, which have poured billions into the technology, but also for Japan and South Korea, which have based their decarbonization strategies on fuel.
Toyota said hydrogen products need to be rolled out in conjunction with government efforts to roll out alternative fuel infrastructure. “This is not a chicken-and-egg problem; it’s more like honey and bees,” Nakajima said, explaining that vehicles and infrastructure need to be delivered at the same time.
Despite these setbacks, Toyota insiders say they are not giving up on hydrogen for passenger cars, and last October Toyota announced a deal with traditional rival Hyundai to advance fuel cell vehicles. We discussed the partnership.
They validated their bet on the Prius, which was first sold in 1997, drawing parallels with the decade of patience required for hybrid sales to take off.
“This is what Toyota is doing,” Hong said. “It’s large enough to sustain multiple bets, even ones with a low probability of profit.”
