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When Venta Maersk, a vessel owned by Danish Ap Møller-Maersk, set sail from Vladivostok in the far east of Russia in 2018 towards St. Petersburg west, the voyage was reported as a precursor to what would come. It was the first vessel ship to Europe from Asia, instead of the Suez Canal. It was speculated that time and cost savings would make such a trip a routine as Arctic temperatures increased and sea ice were covered.
But seven years later, Venta Maersk remains the only ship from a large international container line using the route. In 2024, the traveling ships processed only 3 million tonnes of cargo passing between points outside the Arctic, according to Rosatom, a Russian state company that organizes the journey. The figure was warped in 2023 with 15.7 billion tonnes of cargo and 26,434 trips, prompting rerouting of voyages last year before Yemen’s attacks.
The unwillingness of most transport lines operating in the Arctic circulates questions the prediction that warming in the ocean will reconstruct shipping patterns.
Daniel Richards, director of London-based consultant Maritime Strategy International, points out the risks of using the Northern Route. He says container transport lines tend to be risk aversive, and their customers are similarly reluctant to enter ecological and geopolitical-sensitive areas where goods are ecologically and geopolitical. “I don’t think it’s likely to change in the short term,” he says.
However, Terge Jorgensen, director of the Port of Kirkens near Norway’s Russia border, believes the area could become a key trading route. He talks to the BBC in May about his vision of transforming the lightly used port into “Singapore of the North” and transfers the containers between the ships.
Terge Jorgensen, director of the Port of Kirkenes near Norway’s Russia border © Naina Helen Jåma/Bloomberg’Here we are building here in Kirkenes is the shipping version where the three continents meet: North America, Europe, Asia © Naina Helen Jåma/Bloomberg
Willingness to use the North Sea route can be determined by geography, economics and geopolitics. Geography is the main point of favour, as corridors are much shorter means of reaching parts of Europe from Asia than alternatives. It is a 12,840 nautical miles journey through the traditional Suez Canal route from Japan in Yokohama to the Port of Murmansk in the Russian Arctic Circle, and a 5,770 nautical miles journey through the North Sea route.
Also, due to climate change, the passageway has become more navigable. Although some of the Arctic do not often have sea ice in the summer, many transport lines prefer to use “ice class” vessels with extremely strong hulls. Many rely on Russian icebreakers provided by Rosatom to clear the road.
Richards points out that the Northern Hemisphere summer period, the lowest sea ice coverage, is when the heaviest commodity flows come from Asia to Europe and North America ahead of Christmas. “To coincide with the peak summer season, someone may sail several times a year, providing slightly faster passing times,” he says.
Richards said some container ships have a relatively small number of North Sea routes, but are run primarily by specialized operators with links to Russia and China. For example, two small container lines from NewNew Shipping, based in Darian, China and Hong Kong, are serving through routes.
However, for most shipping companies, the economic and geopolitical risks operating through the Arctic outweigh any opportunity. Basil Caratzas, a New York-based ship finance expert, said the route is “very isolated. There’s none throughout the year.”
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Richards says that unpredictable weather presents “technical challenges” for container ships following a set schedule. It is rarely clear which parts are ice-free and when an icebreaker is needed. And there are environmental concerns. Since 2019, several large transport lines have signed Arctic Corporate Transport Pledges, pledging not to use Arctic routes to avoid pollution in the area.
The route also bypasses hubs where ships can unload and pick up cargo between ports. For example, Maersk uses a hub from Tanjung Pelepas near Singapore. Sarara, Oman. and the Spanish and Morocco sides of the Strait of Gibraltar to serve Asia, the Gulf and Africa.
Those familiar with Maersk’s ideas add that reliance on the hub was the reason it never returned to the Arctic, and that due to sanctions, Maersk is no longer doing business in Russia. The route passes almost entirely through Russian waters, and using it may require support from a Rosatom icebreaker.
Caratzas suspects that most lines will refrain from using the route for now.
