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Growth in e-cigarette sales sways on both sides of the Atlantic, challenging the prediction that steam devices will become the dominant alternative to smoking and provide a sustainable lifeline for large cigarettes.
British American Tobacco, the FTSE 100 group behind Vuse E-Cigarettes, said last week it expects sales of its vaping devices to fall in the middle of October around the world in the first half of the year.
According to data provider Nielsen, the world’s largest vaping market, sales of regulated devices have declined almost every month for the past two years in the US over the same period in the previous year. Meanwhile, the second largest market in the UK, the vaping valence is levelled.
“When Vaping first appeared in the early 2010s, many people predicted that smoking would be replaced, and that view is wrong,” said Rae Maile, an analyst at Panmure Liberum.
The slowdown comes after strong growth that was accelerating between 2021 and 2024 as the recent proliferation of disposable e-cigarettes in the US and the UK.
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The decline in sales puts billions of pounds at stake by tobacco giants. They are looking for new growth measures to offset the long-term decline in tobacco sales. The World Health Organization says tobacco use has declined more than half since 2000.
Marlborough maker Philip Morris International has invested in more than $14 billion in tobacco alternatives, but aims to win two-thirds of its revenue from “smokeless” products by 2030.
Shane MacGuill, an analyst at EuroMonitor, said the decline in e-cigarette sales has made it difficult for tobacco companies to achieve their goals and “force them to rethink their strategies.”
The rise in vaping is controversial. The manufacturer has been accused of promoting nicotine addiction among children by producing flavors such as candyflus and green gummy bears.
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However, there are signs that this is sinking. In September, the US Food and Drug Administration found that vaping had fallen to a 10-year low among school-age children. According to the survey, 1.6 million respondents said last year they had been using e-cigarettes since 2.1mn in 2023.
The FDA’s long and expensive approval process is that only 34 vaping devices have been approved for sale in the US.
City analyst Simon Hales said there was a “massive change” in spending from unregulated e-cigarettes to unregulated e-cigarettes. U.S. convenience stores sell unauthorized disposable steam, mostly made by Chinese manufacturers, such as Elf Bar and Lost Mary.
Batt’s chief corporate officer Kingsley Wheaton said the company’s e-cigarette sales are falling as consumers buy unregulated products. Wheaton argued that tighter regulations would result in sales being “flowing” into legitimate markets.
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PMI CEO Jacek Olczak told the Financial Times he thinks “everyone is wrong (to stop smoking) is wrong.” Orcak said the sale of PMI’s heated tobacco device IQO is a nicotine pouch, a flavored bag held against nicotine-releasing gum, and is resilient.
Concerns about the environmental impact of disposable steam – a huge contributor to the recent growth of e-cigarettes – has led to the UK’s ban on products.
According to a survey by University College in London, sales of all vaping devices have been suffering in the months leading up to the ban.
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“The use of vaping was a very sharp upward trajectory,” said UCL professor Sarah Jackson, but after the government’s announcement, the trend was “leveled.”
Data visualization by Alan Smith
