For the past 70 years, Fox Restaurant served pancakes, pork loin, and catfish to the people of Altadena, Los Angeles County. It was charred by last week’s devastating wildfires, leaving only the sign for a roadside diner.
Fox owner Paul Rosenblu is now wondering if it makes sense to stay here as the team rebuilds. “There is a limit to how long you can live in a disaster area,” he says. “At some point you say, ‘I don’t want to be a part of this crap anymore.'”
Tens of thousands of other people across Los Angeles are facing the same dilemma. Should they survive in a region turned into a smoldering mountain by one of the deadliest natural disasters in U.S. history, or should they move to a place less susceptible to climate change-related disasters?
The wildfire, fueled by a powerful monsoon known as the Santa Anas, broke out on the morning of January 7 in the affluent coastal Pacific Palisades area. Other fires soon broke out in the city and its suburbs, killing at least 27 people and causing damage. More than 12,000 structures have collapsed and approximately 180,000 people have been forced to evacuate their homes.
Potential economic losses are estimated at between $135 billion and $150 billion, compared to the $16.5 billion set by the 2018 Northern California Camp Fire, the deadliest and most destructive wildfire in state history. It far exceeds the record.
The two worst fires, the Palisades Fire and the Eaton Fire in Altadena, were still burning as of Friday. But Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass and California Governor Gavin Newsom already issued emergency executive orders this week to jump-start the rebuilding process. They promise to speed up work by cutting through red tape, including streamlining plan reviews and waiving environmental requirements.
Bass, who has faced severe criticism for his handling of the crisis, said this week: “People have lost their homes, but they are ready to get back on their feet and get back on their feet.” “If your property burns down and you want to rebuild it exactly as it was before, you don’t have to go through a complicated and time-consuming permitting process.”
However, several difficult issues stand in the way of the push for reconstruction. Will the city be able to cover the cost of rebuilding areas that are no longer covered by insurance? Are the hardest-hit areas safe for humans to live in? And how today’s Los Angeles, with homes dramatically arranged on hillsides and bordered by forests, is the perfect place to live in a warming world. Does it have any meaning?
The fire raised “serious questions about the long-term sustainability of a city that is fundamentally based on sprawl and single-family development,” said L.A.-based designer and advocate for the 6th Street Viaduct in Downtown. says architect Michael Malzahn. Achieving sustainable high-density housing in cities.
The burnt remains of the Fox Restaurant in Altadena. Owner Paul Rosenblu says after so many natural disasters, “people might take their insurance money and move to Virginia.” © Instagram/@foxsaltadena
“Is this the time to fundamentally rethink how we live in cities?” he says. “Fires occur every few years and of varying sizes. We wish this was a one-time anomaly, but it’s not. It’s part of the regular cycle of life in Southern California. ”
Altadena’s beautiful natural environment at the foot of the San Gabriel Mountains makes people want to live there. The town became a haven for middle-class black families forced out of other white-dominated areas.
However, this terrain is dry and receives little precipitation, making it the perfect environment for wildfires. The situation becomes dangerous as Santa Anas, the so-called “devil’s wind” blows out of the desert and dries out the plants.
Shauna Dawson Beal, a marketing consultant whose Altadena vacation home was destroyed in the Eaton Fire, has become convinced that living in Southern California is an increased risk. “The fires highlighted the fact that none of these communities are safe anymore,” she says. “The size of high-risk areas has tripled.”
California attempts to “fireproof” such areas with model building codes that set rules for building homes in fire-prone areas. Residents must create 100 feet of defensible space around their homes and remove flammable materials to provide a safe perimeter for firefighters.
California Governor Gavin Newsom and Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass tour Pacific Palisades. They issued an executive order to begin the rebuilding process, but will the city be able to cover the costs of rebuilding areas that are becoming uninsurable? ©Eric Thayer/Getty Images
But that didn’t help much in this big fire. “The winds were so strong that firefighters couldn’t do anything,” said Moira Conlon, founder of PR firm Financial Profiles. She lost her home in Pacific Palisades, an upscale neighborhood where many Hollywood stars and studio executives live.
Conlon has no confidence in rebuilding. “The place is a toxic waste zone with no infrastructure,” she says.
The cost of rebuilding, with thousands of others in the process of rebuilding, could end up being prohibitive, she added. “Can you imagine the shortages of supplies and labor that we’re going to see? Do I want to spend the next five years of my life fighting for builders?”
And there is also the risk of more wildfires. These are no longer just seasonal hazards, but are now ever-present risks as climate change fosters extreme heat and prolonged droughts. “It’s scary, but God knows it could happen again,” Conlon says.
The threat of natural disasters has always been seen as a price to pay for the privilege of living in Los Angeles, with its dramatic coastline and Mediterranean climate.
In 1938, a flood killed 115 people and destroyed more than 5,000 homes. The 1994 Northridge earthquake destroyed buildings and caused up to $40 billion in damage. Wildfires are always a concern, especially during the dry months of August to October.
Houses were destroyed in the Pacific Palisades on January 7, when wildfires fanned by the monsoon known as Santa Anas destroyed homes. © Ethan Swope/AP
In his book, Ecology of Fear: Los Angeles and the Imagination of Disaster, Los Angeles author Mike Davis charts the history of fires in the coastal paradise of Malibu, noting that Malibu is “the largest source of wildfires in North America, and perhaps the world.” declared to be the center. . He questioned the cycle of rebuilding after every fire, which he said has been made possible by cheap fire insurance for decades. As a result, larger and larger “firebreak suburbs” were born.
That cycle may now be broken. Many of the homes destroyed in this month’s fires were not insured. Companies like Allstate and State Farm recently stopped selling new home insurance in California, citing regulatory caps that make it increasingly difficult to cover losses from rising prices.
State Farm announced last year that it would not renew insurance policies for 72,000 homes and apartments in California, including 69% of its Pacific Palisades insurance plan, but it partially revised that policy in the wake of this month’s fire. It was withdrawn. Many homeowners taken over by State Farm turned to the California-backed Fair Plan instead. The Fair Plan provides up to $3 million in coverage for residential properties, which is not much consideration given the real estate values in these areas.
The patchy insurance situation may mean that, whatever the political rhetoric, it will be difficult to get back to better. “Many people are uninsured and many more will be underinsured, which means people will be under pressure to cut corners wherever possible in rebuilding. ” said Maltzan. “That means the housing will be built worse than it was originally.”
Dawson Beal’s home was insured, but she worries that her insurance won’t cover the huge cost of rebuilding her new home in Altadena. “Based on supply and demand, costs are going to go up significantly,” she says. “I’ve heard it costs between $700 and $900 per square foot to rebuild, and no insurance company will cover that.”
A family sits outside their burnt-out home in Altadena. Los Angeles’ chronic housing shortage will worsen as thousands of homeless residents suddenly appear looking for a roof over their heads © Brandon Bell/Getty Images
And as more companies change their insurance policies to reflect the increased risk of fire, new premiums could end up being too high for most homeowners after a home is rebuilt. “When we go back and rebuild, isn’t there a risk that our community won’t be insured?” she says.
This devastation comes as California is already in a cost-of-living crisis. The sudden appearance of thousands of homeless residents looking for a roof over their heads would exacerbate the city’s chronic housing shortage. The median home price in Los Angeles has already exceeded $1 million, increasing by 30% between 2018 and 2023.
“The big issue is housing affordability,” said Manfred Keil of Inland Empire Economist, a nonprofit development group. “After (the fires) housing costs will go up and people won’t be able to afford it and that’s where they’ll start moving out.”
There is precedent for this. Six years after the Camp Fire destroyed Paradise, California, the town’s population is about 9,300, down from 26,500 before the fire.
Despite Bass and Newsom’s pledges, red tape will also slow the recovery process, said Edward Ring of the Education Foundation California Policy Center. “If you think about how long it takes to get a building permit in California, it could only take three years to start construction,” he says. “It’s going to cost $100,000 in permits and fees. Just imagine what that means when you’re trying to rebuild.”
Firefighters work through ash left by a wildfire near Mulholland Drive in Los Angeles. Wildfires have killed at least 27 people, destroyed more than 12,000 buildings and forced around 180,000 people to evacuate their homes © David Swanson/Reuters
Meanwhile, it is unclear who will actually pay for the cost of rebuilding not only the homes but also the infrastructure destroyed by the fire.
“I want to rebuild, but how long will it take for (the authorities) to refund the utility bill?” How do you plug in a saw? ” said restaurateur Rosenblu. “Fatigue and length of time will have a big impact. People may take their insurance money and move to Virginia.”
All of this compounds an already serious problem for Los Angeles, where Hollywood is struggling and there is a persistent homelessness crisis. City leaders must oversee the recovery from the fire while also preparing to host next year’s eight FIFA World Cup games and the 2028 Olympics.
But the city has been through a “very traumatic period,” said the longtime Los Angeles businessman, who held key roles in the California Department of Commerce and later served as vice chairman of the public relations firm Abernathy McGregor. Ian Campbell points out. In addition to floods, earthquakes and fires, L.A. also endured the downsizing of its major employer, the aerospace industry, after the end of the Cold War, he noted.
“Los Angeles has a long history of these amazing moments, and part of the reason is that we live in very unstable terrain,” he says. “This could be a new reckoning for Los Angeles. Is the city going to continue to allow people to live in dangerous neighborhoods, and should society as a whole subsidize it? ?These are things that have to be faced.”
