good morning. The government’s difficulties in reducing welfare spending are largely a policy issue. But they are also the product of a dysfunctional political operation. Some thoughts about the latter of today’s notes.
I’m heading towards defeat
The scale and magnitude of the government’s planned rebellion over reductions in individual independent payments is continuing to grow. While Sadiq Khan also opposed the bill, more Labour lawmakers signed the amendments to block the law from the first major commons vote next week.
Kemi Badenok has announced that the Conservatives will vote against the cuts. Not so many words. She gave opposition leaders a very beloved test throughout the era, “We will support you. If you meet these three tests that are impossible to satisfy.”
Three tests: Governments should cut unemployment rates, cut welfare budgets and rule out tax increases in the fall. Everything before voting next week! Of course, the real idea here is that the government appears to lose its vote. So, Badenoch is setting up three impossible tests, which is why he publicly dismisses it as a vote of confidence while Keir Starmer pledges to reform.
As I wrote yesterday, the fundamental problem with labor is that policies are bad. This reduction will be carried out against the government’s broader logic of reforms to welfare, as long as the government has a policy logic. That’s one reason why attempts to contain the rebellion are not working. Ministers are deployed to gain rebel forces. But as one rebel told me, the problem is, “they really have nothing to say.”
The average labour rebels are pretty close to public opinion on this issue – they agree with the overall purpose of what the government is trying to do and that our welfare system needs reform, but they see the arbitrary changes that the government is making.
The introduction of universal credit was a reform as it changed how benefits systems work. In my opinion, it was not entirely successful. Despite public welfare spending remaining at similar levels (as a share of GDP) as during the financial crisis, we are now seeing a higher level of poverty.
However, this proposed change by the labour government will continue to be evaluated and operated as before, and not “reform” under a new set of conditions. It’s just a way to save money.
Given the thin policy justification, the government whip and ministers are all really left saying, “Come on, please be firm on us.” But the problem is that for a variety of reasons, Labour MPs don’t tend to do so. Keir Starmer never spent hours begging for MPs or working in the tea room. There aren’t many stars who intend to vote for policies that are thought to be bad to give a Prime Minister. As a result, priority businesses, whether opposed or inaugurated, have not been as effective at putting MPs aside.
This is part of why this rebellion is now led to the 11 Select Committee Chairs. Mostly they are politicians who don’t want to anticipate or bring up ministerial positions, but can cause trouble unless they are cultured and put aside. The government has never tried enough to do so.
Labour lawmakers have little contact with the prime minister, and almost faith in political strategy is another thing that joins the rebellion. It is certainly also why some lawmakers are openly talking about possible leadership changes.
And what makes it all worse is the U-turns on winter fuel allowances, a measure that is significantly less difficult than these cuts. It showed Labour lawmakers that if they don’t like policies, they can change it. It showed that the government is under pressure.
The combination of bad politics and bad policies means that the government is currently heading towards defeat at the Commons. And the consequences of that loss could still lead to a deeper crisis for the government. If Labour wants to take office for a second year, changes in both policy and approach will be required.
Try this now
As I have stated once or twice, I absolutely adored the Ballads of Wallis Island (still in the cinemas! Take a look!). It also features a great soundtrack. Here’s a great interview with film composer Adem Ilhan.
Today’s top stories
RollerCoaster Economics | People who spoke with the UK government has pledged to spend nearly £500 million on improving transportation and infrastructure to secure the enormous Bedford theme park planned by US media group Comcast.
Expanding UK nuclear deterrence | The UK plans to purchase 12 US-made F-35 stealth fighters capable of carrying nuclear weapons in a drastic overhaul of the country’s defense strategy.
China Warning | The UK government says it wants to boost trade with China despite warning that Beijing is spying on the UK and increasing efforts to undermine its democracy and economic security.
Charm Offence | Labour MPs argue that if they rebel against changes in government welfare, they were told they would not be considered for promotion or ministerial roles, I’s essay (salary) reports. Rebels say people who speak for the government are telling the MP that next week’s vote should be treated as a move of trust in the government.
Recommended newsletter
Last week – Start every week with a preview of what’s on the agenda. Sign up here
Newswrap – A summary of our business and economics. Sign up here
