good morning. The government is considering removing the two child restrictions and putting more pressure on spending plans at a time when borrowing costs are rising. The 30-year gold leaf yield is close to 27 years high. In today’s memo, there are some thoughts on its policy and politics.
Restrictions that cannot be continued
The government is putting pressure on benefits caps for two children (blocking parents of two or more children from claiming benefits sash). From within, Labour MPs have opposed it, including two related ministers, Liz Kendall and Bridget Phillipson, co-owners of the government’s child poverty strategy. Nigel Farage plans to pledge to dispose of CAP as well.
The basis for the policy is pretty clear here. As I wrote in my column this week, limits essentially limit child poverty progress. Lifting the cap is the biggest thing a government can do if they want to maintain their promise to reduce child poverty. There is a reason why both the relevant ministers are eager to see the policy progress.
The political basis is a little more complicated. Labour lawmakers are opposed to CAP (hearing several variations each week, “I wasn’t caught up in politics to increase child poverty”). But most voters support it (although it must be said, it also opposes an increase in child poverty). Labor does not benefit much from this.
The risk of labor here, as I wrote before, is, again, that their promises to taxes and expenditures have not been able to settle with one another. They were always either going to have to tax more, spend less, or have to do a little bit of both. Removing two caps would cost up to £3.5 billion a year by the end of the decade.
But the danger for them is that they waive these tax pledges and spend them in a confused way. It is driven not through general and consistent changes in strategy, but by animating most Labour MPs and voters. And what most disruption swings voters and MPs on a certain day in 2025 may not encourage votes in 2029 and is perfect for the UK as a whole.
For Farage, opposing the cap is a good way to make yourself appear to the right and make you look like you’re shaping the event. Most people think the government must retreat with restrictions on two children, so Farage said, “Look, where will they go and follow?
And he may get the award he is hoping for. However, it is not that there is no risk of Farage. As economist Archie Hall focuses on his subjects, the manifesto of reform is full of holes! Of course, in 2029, most people in the UK feel that things are getting worse than ever before, and the government feels that it’s a broken flash that doesn’t matter. But frankly, if people feel a little better, the Farage party says that people will say, “What do you think about the government?” “What do you think about the government compared to the opposition?” At that point, their doubts about the reform spending plan and Farage’s suitability to become prime minister may just come to row.
Try this now
This week I listened to Stevie Knicks’ amazing 1981 record Bella Donna while writing my column.
Today’s top stories
At least 47 people injured in the collision | Merseyside police said a 53-year-old man was arrested after a car crashed with a crowd during the Liverpool Football Club’s Premier League victory parade but did not treat the incident as a terrorist attack.
Rely on short-term debt | The UK government is moving towards short-term borrowing to lower interest bills as global debt sales increase pressure on tax and spending plans.
Shot in the Arm | UK Health Services Leader is supported by Prime Minister Rachel Reeves to increase daily spending on real terms with daily NHS spending reviews next month at just 2%.
Two-child limit “Just the Start” | Nigel Farage pledges a tax credit for married couples and encourages people to have bigger families in today’s speech, email David Churchill reports.
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