good morning. Today we look to Scotland. There, John Swinney’s first minister announced that he would advance the Scottish government’s plans for “yet another storm” of economic challenges. More thoughts on the broader political contest at Holyrood below.
Health and home grass
Earlier this week, John Swinney held a press conference to outline his reaction to US tariffs. The first minister in Scotland warned that it increased the chances of a recession.
He filed a legislative program in May by four months, claiming that he could restructure his spending priorities to address the economic dislocation caused by Donald Trump’s global tariffs.
“I want to understand where the UK government needs to do more to protect Scotland’s economic interests,” he said.
Following last week’s acquisition of British Steel’s state, Swinney has pushed nationalist grievances over the British government’s Anglo-centered policies. The SNP is seeking a similar approach from Grangemouth, Scotland’s only oil refinery, with plans to close in the coming weeks.
However, with limited economic levers at his disposal, his “program for the government” on May 6 actually expresses his hopes for a “laser-like delivery” on domestic issues within his control, such as the NHS. A year later, he asks Scottish electors to grant SNP 30 years of power in the May 2026 Holyrood election.
Regarding health, Swinney pointed out that it “encourses signs of progress,” claiming that the NHS “turned the corner.” He now focuses on patients who feel “concrete progress” over the next year. His opponents are countered almost every day at the counter, showing data showing lack of progress.
Swinney plays on the ground, favored by charismatic Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar by putting the NHS at the heart of his strategy. AnasSarwar is a former NHS dentist who was defended since his friend Keir Starmer started at Westminster. The restraints on the benefits of workers’ poor families and disabled people are being mercilessly attacked by SNPs.
However, Sarwar’s team pushed back calls from insiders of workers who argued they should stand up to Scotland by refusing to “play other people on the pitch” and choosing to fight against priorities.
Instead, Sarwar is casting himself as a deal maker who can modify the NHS, improve education and delegate decisions to areas far from Edinburgh’s centralized SNP government.
If elected first minister, the Scottish Labour leader – the youngest child of the UK’s first Muslim Parliamentary legislator – will wipe out years of opposition to SNP’s nuclear power in order to bring jobs and growth to Scotland. And the uprisings cast by Trump’s tariffs can present new opportunities to demonstrate leadership to the UK’s labour government.
But that’s a tough question. Support for workers north and south of the border has left the euphoria of victory in the party’s general election last July.
While polls show general dissatisfaction with the Scottish government, Professor John Curtis of the University of Stratreid has pointed out negative sentiments towards the UK government, even among those who voted prioritized last year.
“Swinney isn’t setting the heather on fire, but at least he’s keeping the ship stable,” he said.
The rise of reform in Scotland is less severe than in England and Wales, but it has taken the rebels at around 15%, earning more votes from the Conservatives and Labour than nationalists. “Reform is fragmenting the votes of Unionists north of the border,” he added.
The SNP has not made a dramatic recovery, but the ruling party is now clear about 14 points in the first constituency vote. “If this continues, they’re going to pick up seats in most constituencies,” Curtis said.
According to Pollster Mark Diffley, the current poll suggests a parliament consisting of 55 seats of SNP, 20 workers, 17 conservatives, 14 reform UK, a 13-year-old Liberal Democrat and 10 Greens.
Together, SNP and Greene provided Holyrood, with a majority of independents, and kept constitutional issues alive for another parliamentary session.
The end of the era
Speaking of Green, veteran MSP Patrick Harvey has announced that he will be pausing as Scottish Green co-leader, with the sole intention of seeking reelection as MSP in next year’s Scottish Parliamentary elections. He led the party to its best Holyrood performance in 2021.
During a two-and-a-half year coalition with Greens’ SNP, Harvie and co-leader Lorna Slater utilized modest council representatives for the vast distribution of Green Policy, including free bus trips under the age of 21.
Former Minister Hamza Yousaf caused his own downfall when he abolished Green from the government in April 2024.
Green has since got concessions from the new Swinney government to drive the latest budget. However, Swinney’s centralist administration reveals elements of policy that have been built in partnership with Green, such as forcing new homeowners to install heat pumps.
Ahead of the summer leadership campaign, Harvey called for the party’s unity after an anonymous press conference. Within membership, views vary depending on whether you maintain or compromise ideological purity to achieve green results.
“There are a variety of views on strategy. What is the balance between a campaign against the greatest position and setting up a proposal to pass through Congress,” he said.
Even if the polls are correct, the larger green cohort of 10 MSPs will be smaller and face the challenge of “how can we provide a green agenda in this session?”
Harvie proposes focusing on radical, yet deliverable, yet deliverable reforms. This is widely recognized as being outdated yet difficult to tackle politically.
“There are concrete changes that we can move forward to become the standard bearers of a truly fair society,” he said.
Try this now
I was fortunate to see New Road, the latest incarnation of Black Country, at Queen’s Hall in Edinburgh. There, a respectful crowd rapped tracks from the British rock band’s second album, Forever Howlong. Some fans have lost their faith since Isaac Wood, the singular lead singer, dropped out to focus on his mental health. Yes, the atmosphere is different, but the orchestra crescendo is as beautiful as ever.
Today’s top stories
BoE during delicate balance | UK inflation fell to 2.6% in March, offering some relief to the Bank of England as it poses as the economic impact of Donald Trump’s tariffs.
Steel Eye Scrutiny | The Minister should consider the security implications of China’s investment in all UK critical national infrastructure and supply chains in the wake of the UK’s steel saga, a senior lawmaker urged.
Reform is targeting workers’ voters | Nigel Farage claimed that Reform Britain is now the main opposition party as he sought to reindustrialize the UK in an attempt to win votes beyond the traditional North Heartlands of workers. It’s just over two weeks away from the local elections on May 1, and Farage said the party would “park tanks on red walled grass.”
On High Speed Trucks | Network Rail paid around £1 million to lobbyists who arranged a meeting with top workers figures, raising new questions about the validity of UK regulations banning lobbying.
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