good morning. Is there any prospect of an election agreement between the Conservative Party and British reform? I often get emails asking this question. This is also widely discussed in Westminster. Yesterday, conservative mayor Ben Hushen said that two right-wing parties “have to come together.”
My short answer is, “Not this side of the general election.”
Robert Schrimsley agrees and insists on his column this week why he agrees and insists on his column.
Holy Alliance
“There’s no equal merger, there’s always a buyer.” I think that’s even more true in politics than elsewhere, if there is. One reason I have a fierce doubt about reform and conservative agreements before the next general election is that the ultimate buyer is now Tory Party, and the very poor conditions of Nigel Farage.
If you have a chance of a merger, a good standard to measure is to ask yourself, “Do you think reforms have more than five MPs after the next election?” Because every legislator who gets reforms will lean the balance of power in negotiations on election agreements or full-scale mergers with the Tories.
Yes, that reform would be consistently ahead of the conservatives in the poll. However, it is worth remembering that it happened from 2 o’clock from 1981 when the newly formed SDP was negotiating terms for seat allocation with liberals. All evidence of the vote, bye-elections in which both parties stood aside each other, suggests that the SDP is more potent and stronger for both parties.
However, the existing organization and size of the Liberal Party created its own facts on the ground. They ended with the best prospects and appeared as the larger of the two elements of the alliance after the 1983 election. The modern Liberal Democrats, formed from the merger of the parties, are still Liberals before they became precisely social democratic for that reason.
As Robert points out, the current deal is, for reform, they are locked in 90 seats second only to labour, and 90 of those 90, some are decent pick-up opportunities, but some are very far away. That kind of deal means burning second-class positions in reform indefinitely. Why does Nigel Farage agree with it at this point? So voters must resolve questions for them, at least for the foreseeable ones.
There are currently no incentives for Parley on either side. The two are in a battle for political territories similar to Russians and Western allies who occupy an influential zone at the end of World War II. Now it’s the wrong condition for someone else. The Conservatives still have far more lawmakers than reforms and know that the agreement will permanently embed rivals on the right. They hope that anti-Trump sentiment will shrink Farage or that his party can burst before the general election. Finally, the history of reform leaders shows that he is not the one who finds collaboration easy.
Local elections in the coming years could be decisive in some way and reach a deal, but I doubt that. There are useful similarities on the other side of politics. Workers and the Liberal Democrats had no agreements in the last election, but have been left off each other’s paths with various other votes. But that’s because they were engaged in attempts to knock each other out of the period from 2010 to 2019, and gradually established which party was a viable alternative to the Tories and where they went, as in 1981 to 1992.
Here are some really important differences that are worth noting. This means that neither Labor nor the Liberal Democrats rely on their leaders to maintain their popularity. Nigel Farage’s party had always tended to collapse in internal conflict and unrelatedness without him. In the next election, he will be older than Michael Heseltin when he was kicked out of the 1997 Tory Leadership election. Farage then becomes older than Harold Macmillan. On the advice of his doctors he resigned as prime minister.
If there is a quick route to the agreement, it probably runs through the unexpected Faragares reforms becoming a tormented asset for avid conservative buyers.
Try this now
Last night we had a great evening at Southbank in London and saw Philharmonia perform Leonard Bernstein’s Chichester poem sal and Shostakovich’s 10th Symphony. Conductor Marine Alsop was a Bernstein student, so I always find it very special to see her do his work. There’s a lovely recording she directs it by Naxos, but I don’t think the soloist of that recording is as good as Hugo Workum, who made his first major solo performance last night.
On the subject of Shostakovich Ten, Deutsche Grammophon released an incredible set last month to commemorate the 50th anniversary of Shostakovich’s death. It includes a complete cycle of the Boston Symphony Orchestra’s symphony and a new recording of the Yo-Yo Concerto with Yo-Yo Ma, Yuja Wang and a Piano Concerto with Yo-Yo Ma. Macbeth. I really enjoy the way I get through it. You can listen to it on Spotify here, but I really need to evangelize for the physical set.
But you spend it and have a great weekend!
Today’s top stories
“The biggest Torydeners are talking to us” | Reform has launched an appetite to raise funds from wealthy offshore adversaries in low-tax jurisdictions, including Monaco, the United Arab Emirates and Switzerland, and is using UK loose funding rules to strengthen funding.
It’s for young people to find | The UK’s ministers are competing to contain potential political backlash against such deals ahead of next month’s important summit, preventing the UK from creating a post-Brexit youth visa scheme in the EU.
Charts for Another Course | Prime Minister Rachel Reeves rejected a key board on Donald Trump’s economic agenda prior to talks with US counterpart Scott Bescent, saying he is “prideful that the UK has a global and open reputation.”
Scottish University Crisis Deepens | About 350 staff at the University of Edinburgh are embracing voluntary redundancy as it appears to cut around £140 million from its budget, the BBC reports. In a letter to staff, Principal Peter Mattison confirmed that academic promotions will be frozen from 2025-26. This month, the FT’s Scottish correspondent reported on the Dundee University cash crisis.
Recommended newsletter
White House Watch – What Trump’s second term means for Washington, business and the world. Sign up here
FT Opinions – Insights and judgments from top commentators. Sign up here
