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British Prime Minister Kiel has been forced to make some controversial welfare reforms in an attempt to avoid major uprisings by Labour lawmakers.
But the long-term question of how the state can afford the UK’s bulging welfare bill is set to have the number of disability benefits claims rise significantly over the next decade.
How much is the problem?
Without reform, the Finance Institute said spending on working-age health and disability benefits is expected to reach £66 billion by 2029-30.
These costs have risen exponentially since the pandemic, with an increase of £16 billion between 2019 and last year.
Without reform, think tanks estimate that a similar magnitude would be expected by the end of Congress.
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At the same time, the National Statistics Office estimates that there are 2.8 million people in the UK that will prevent 2.8 million people from working with long-term health conditions.
The welfare bill changes were designed to save nearly £5.5 billion by 2029-30, but Friday’s concession could ultimately shave £3 billion from this total.
What did you admit to summer?
In March, Starmer announced plans to strengthen eligibility for disability benefits known as “individual independent payments.”
On Friday, the government said only those who have started in November 2026 will not implement stricter assessment rules than current claimants.
This is a substantial concession, which, according to IFS, will lead to an estimated 370,000 extra people receiving profits at a cost of £1.9 billion in 2029-30.
It avoids the impact of income on profit-dependent households, but can be viewed as unfair to equally worthy claimants who have become ill after the cutoff date. The campaigners accused the minister of creating a two-tier system on Friday.
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The government also committed to freezing the health elements of universal credit until 2029-30.
MPs are now said to be paid in line with existing claimants’ inflation. Payments will be halved and frozen for new claimants.
There are also concessions being made in tightening the standards for qualifying for PIP.
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Ministers have said from November 2026 that claimants must earn at least four points of need to receive PIPs in at least one category. Lawmakers are said to be the subject of review.
Starmer also submitted a £1 billion employment support package this year to persuade lawmakers to support welfare reform.
What happens next?
This week’s U-turn means the government is “actually creating a slight dent” in the welfare bill, according to IFS’ associate director Tom Waters.
“The packages were standing a few days ago, but not stopped, and certainly not reversed, these spending trends were slower.”
He added: “Of course, none of the options available here are easy. By making so much savings over the next few years, it is necessary to take away very large sums of money from so many people over a relatively short period of time, in many cases, in vulnerable circumstances.”
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Given the concessions made to current claimants, experts point out that the government has at least managed to initiate restraints in future welfare bills.
“The concessions they made today will not change long-term policies, said Mike Brewer, deputy chief economic and chief economist at the Resolution Foundation think tank.” . They’re fixing it a little more slowly than when they first published the green paper. ”
He added that the most important long-term change that is not found in next week’s bill is a redesign of PIP eligibility tests. “Next week’s action will slow growth in disability benefits spending, but a redesign of testing could have a much greater impact.”
