good morning. This week’s tragic events in Pahargam are reminders of the ever-present threat of violence in the subcontinent. After 26 people were killed in the terrorist attacks in Kashmir, the Indian government has significantly downgraded diplomatic ties with Pakistan and halted participation in the important cross-border water treaty. Islamabad retaliated by suspending the peace treaty and closing airspace to Indian Airlines.
The tension is high, and everyone is naturally angry and emotional. We watch closely to see what happens next.
one step closer
India is working at a enthusiastic pace to make the most of Donald Trump’s tariffs. Earlier this week, Prime Minister Narendra Modi hosted US vice president JD Vance, both of whom welcomed the “significant progress” made in the trade contract. Meanwhile, in Washington, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said the first tranche of the two tranches of the agreement will be completed this fall.
The competition, which will become one of the first large economies to sign a deal with Trump, is strategic and aims to help both parties claim victory quickly. With a trade deficit of $45.7 billion with India, the US aims to balance its trade position and open a massive Indian market for American companies. If the US President achieves these goals, he can tout it as an example of the success of his tariff policy, but India hopes that giving Trump an early victory will lead to better terms of trade.
The main concern in New Delhi is protecting vulnerable sectors of the economy, particularly agricultural products and some core manufacturing. The government has the difficult task of deciding which parts of the homemade manufacturing can be sacrificed for greater benefits. Some import barriers, such as motorcycles and spirits, have already loosened, and Google Tax has been abolished. But it will likely have to acknowledge further foundations in several sectors, including the thriving portion of the new economy.
One sector to look at is the $125 billion e-commerce market. India limits foreign direct investment in the retail sector, allowing foreign e-commerce companies to operate solely as an online market for third-party sellers. However, local players can produce, own and sell goods through the platform. Washington calls this a “non-tariff barrier” and hopes India will provide full access to the market for online retail giants such as Amazon and Walmart.
Trump tightened his tariff rhetoric this week, but signing the deal would ensure some sort of trade stability in India. In an interconnected world, his continued unpredictability, of course, keeps things in fluidity, even after every transaction has been signed, affecting business and economic growth. But for now, India is only looking at positive things.
Do you have any questions about India-US trade talks? Please reply to this email or let us know at indiabrief@ft.com.
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Genai doesn’t kill all the jobs. still.
At 62%, Indian companies were the biggest users of groundbreaking new technologies. This is a study from access partnerships with technology advisory companies, with recruitment at over 10% revenue growth rates in over half of the approximately 2,600 companies surveyed. The report also said that Genai plans to boost employment and over 60% of companies plan to increase staffing.
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The total number of people employed is net positive, but in my view, changes in the composition of work are equally important. Some roles are gaining momentum as companies hire the best talent to implement genai, while others are already redundant. (My profession, writing, is one of the early victims, as is software development). What AI can’t do well now is the “mushy” job that requires multiple inputs and needs to respond to dynamic environments.
It is impossible to predict what a future workplace will look like, but it is certain that there will be some repetitions along the way, and the demand skill set will constantly change. Companies and workers who adopt technology early will have an advantage. In technical, creative and customer-oriented roles, demand is currently growing, but not always. Everything is fluid. Only quick learners and simple adapters survive. That’s one of the few times I’m grateful to be older.
Go to the diagram
The IMF has reduced its global economic growth forecast for this calendar year to 2.8%. The US is expected to grow at 1.8%. The fund cut India’s forecast by 0.3%, but still puts it at the top of the pack.
Read, listen and watch
I’m reading the bestseller of Japan, Yuki Asaki, butter. Butter is an exposing of Japanese society’s fat phobia based on the true story of a foodie and her hometown convicted of killing three lovers. It is also a reminder of today’s diet culture that the joy of eating, enjoying a meal full of fat and salt, and what is conditioned to feel guilty about consuming.
The winner of last week’s buzzer round, Yaman Singhania wrote to me by suggesting to watch the latest season of Black Mirror, a show that admits I was terrified when I first encountered it. I want to get to this season as soon as I finish the butter.
Buzzer round
What is the United Arab Emirates aiming to roll out to speed up the law by 70%?
Simple answer
On Tuesday we asked: How many meetings do you have per average week?
This is the result. 20 seems to be the number of wins. It’s four meetings a day! (I don’t know how to do this).
Thank you for reading. Indian Business Briefing is compiled by Tee Zhuo. Send feedback, suggestions (and gossip) to indiabrief@ft.com.
