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Nintendo said Thursday it plans to sell 15MN units of the new Switch 2 console this fiscal year, lowering market expectations as Japanese video game companies warned that US tariffs could wipe out “tens of millions of yen” from profits.
The initial forecast for the Switch 2 will take a month ahead of the release of the most scheduled hardware in the gaming industry this year. The new machine attracted powerful global pre-orders despite its $450 price tag higher than expected in the US.
Analysts say the next generation launch on June 5th will create a “transformative” moment for Super Mario creators. But what’s pressing for that is “mutual” tariffs announced by US President Donald Trump in early April, which could force a significant increase in the costs of machinery assembled in Vietnam, Cambodia and China.
“It’s very difficult to estimate sales figures this time due to tariff disruptions,” said Celkan Toto, head of game consultant EasyGames.
Nintendo was betting on shifting much of its production from China to Vietnam and Cambodia after signalling the first Trump administration would be willing to change the terms of world trade.
Nintendo President Furukawa warned on Thursday that rising console prices could reduce U.S. demand if additional tariffs are imposed. He added that tariffs will have a negative impact on “tens of millions of yen” of profits.
In a Bloomberg vote, analysts predicted, on average, that Nintendo would sell 16.8 million Switch 2 for the fiscal year ending in March 2026.
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Despite the tariff threat, Nintendo’s stock has risen 32.5% so far this year, with investors betting on the company’s long-term ability to persuade many of the 152 million people who purchased the original switch device to upgrade to successors.
The company will announce several titles on new consoles, including the latest version of the blockbuster Mario Kart series.
At the end of the current console cycle, for the fiscal year just ended in March, Nintendo’s operating profit fell 46.6% year-on-year to 282.5 billion yen ($1.955 billion). The company expects operating profit to rise 13%, up 3200 billion yen for the current fiscal year.
