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The threat memo sneaks into the otherwise optimistic language of people defending the adoption of artificial intelligence.
You can hear that in the rhetoric of British Technology Secretary Peter Kyle, who told workers and businesses this month: “Act now and you will thrive in the future. With the marketing spill used by software companies like Salesforce, you can hear “companies with businesses that have left behind business risk.” And you can hear it in the way some CEOs are beginning to communicate with their staff. “AI is here for your work,” Fiverr CEO Micha Kaufman wrote in a note to staff last month. “Are we all destined? Not all of us, but those who don’t wake up and quickly understand new reality are unfortunately destined.”
But is it true that there are two options available for “action now” or “remained (and/or doomed)”?
Of course, there is the advantage of FirstMovers and so on, and you can see why that happens to some companies that compete to install new AI systems such as autonomous agents. If these investments lead to lower costs and increased productivity, pioneers can offer lower prices or better services to their customers, and gain more market share. First-Movers is also likely to work with high-tech vendors to form new systems around their own needs. Also, for client-oriented companies such as consultants, having a reputation as a first-mover will likely help you sell AI expertise to your clients.
However, even in sectors that rely on strong network effects, there are also “second mover advantages.” Facebook has overtaken MySpace. Google overtook Ask Jeeves. And, as one senior business executive pointed out in a roundtable discussion I recently attended, Agent AI might prove to be one example of a fairly strong second-movers advantage.
Being a second move is especially useful when the benefits of new technology are uncertain and at high risk. You can watch what the first number is doing, take note of blind alleys and mistakes, then chart more effective courses. You are more likely to extend your workflow but avoid being trapped by a technology vendor that has proven insufficient. A recent report by McKinsey, advocating agent AI, warns “many other risks overall, including uncontrolled autonomy, fragmented system access, lack of observability and lack of traceability, widening the surface of attacks, agent sprawl and replicating.
My argument here is not against the idea that some companies should move quickly (as is of course), but simply being “remained” is also a valid strategy. That doesn’t necessarily mean you’re a loser for the long term. One study on the adoption of technology by the UK MicroBusy in the 2010s (though this was the early generation of early generations of AI technology) found that companies that adopted AI enjoyed higher levels of innovation capabilities, even if it was the first run or the second number.
In fact, the message “action now or overlooked” is more common to high-pressure sales methods than business strategies. Online retailers use “emergency billing” such as countdown clocks. The academic literature suggests that consumers under time use mental shortcuts to make decisions. An urgent claim can instill a “distance effect” that gives the impression that everyone else is already doing or buying something.
It’s not surprising that technology companies use these well-known marketing strategies. There is a huge amount of capital investment needed to sell and return it. However, it is not necessary for politicians and business leaders to reflect them, not specifically to spread the threat to staff. It is well known in neuroscience that when the brain’s fear system is activated, it reduces the ability to explore, innovate and adopt risk. If you want staff to try out ways to implement AI effectively, making them scare their work isn’t the best way to do that. They are also unlikely to be honest about new risks, fearing that they will look like deniers.
It is fair enough for the high-tech companies that have the product to sell and encourage the world to “act now or lose.” But the rest of us don’t have to confuse sales techniques with something deeper.
sarah.oconnor@ft.com
